What next? Predictions for next wave if shutdowns and impact??

[Brett Lee]

In Washington state like many other states we are going back to phase 1 which is pretty much a lockdown other than essential workers.

Many people have not recovered from the first shut down especially people without the ability to work from home. Tech workers and government workers have been fine working from home but many blue collar workers arent so lucky.

I hate to sound like a doomsday kind of guy that says "the sky is falling"... But things look like they will get very tough for many people.

Banks have not started foreclosing on people behind on payments from the Spring at this point. Also some landlords in areas like Seattle have tenants that have chosen to stop paying (because they can muss payments) or simply they cannot pay. There are also many people leaving cities like Seattle because of high crime, homeless camps everywhere etc. My thoughts are people out of work and feeling unsafe will be taking off from major cities if they can.

I am blessed to be in a good spot so far. However, I am concerned about people that are struggling and now being out if work for the next month or so. Once Biden gets in it looks like he will shut down the country on a large scale until vaccines are ready. Where will our economy be bt summer?

Not trying to be super negative but I am concerned and wondering if others are concerned? I mostly see tons of optimism on bigger pockets but wonder if others are concerned? Maybe I am just a negative nelly... I HOPE i am wrong!!

[Dave Spooner]

@Brett Lee

Couple of points of reassurance - the first round of relief did help a great deal. Between the stimulus and unemployment coverage, it managed to kick the can down the road a few months. We're now seeing more issues with payments, but it hasn't been as disastrous as many have repeatedly predicted, not by a long shot. Chances are high that Biden makes a new stimulus package one of his top priorities, so the doom and gloom seems pretty far fetched to me.

Second, and this is huge, we've had great vaccine results from both Pfizer and (just this morning) Moderna. The vaccines will likely get EUA before the end of the year and will start seeing widespread distribution in early 2021 to spring 2021.

I think the bigger question is: what will the long-term impact of COVID be on renter's preferred locations? It's seems secondary, but work-from-home may be the largest catalyst to change.