Is My Market Too Hot For A Newcomer?

[Josh Quinn]

I live in Columbus, OH and would like to start building a portfolio close to home. I've been a business owner for the past 15 years and like what I do, so looking to build some passive income streams that feed each other but don't plan on accessing them for a bit. Basically I want to do the seemingly traditional path of aiming for one 2-4 plex per year, using some additional savings plus whatever I can pull out to fund the next one. 

I have some friends (that I trust, I feel like that's important here) that have been flipping successfully for the past few years and one option is that we do some value added buy and holds together. I've been looking for turnkeys myself and with an agent but nothing is seeming to meet the minimum cash flow requirements and there are a couple of 8-20 unit complexes in the area that I like that do seem to make sense in the immediate future and I am confident I could piece together a few other investors to complete the picture. 

As someone who has never seriously looked before now, in officially one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, should I wait for a fall? As a caveat there are numerous articles about how Columbus is not building apartments fast enough for the expected population growth over the next 10-15 years. So I feel like we have some built-in momentum to counterbalance at least some of the eventual downturn. If my strategy is to hold indefinitely, or until I am at an inflection point where I am maybe ready to make the leap to larger multi-units, is it that bad of an idea to kind of expect to lose a little bit of value as long as the cash flow is covering me and I am willing to ride it out? Honestly I just feel so confident a downturn is around the corner that I want to get enough experience of working a couple of smaller deals now so I won't be so skittish to get real deals when it happens.

My gut says doing the legwork to find inexpensive duplexes we rehab to hold for a significant period of time is the safest bet if I feel like I just have to jump in right now but I would love to get whatever advice anyone has to offer.