The Orange County Housing Report - V-Shaped Recovery

[Karl B.]

*I received this report from The Hartnov Team and figured I'd share it for you Orange County/SoCal investors.

Orange County Housing Report: V-Shaped Recovery

Propelled by record low mortgage rates, buyers are
jumping back into the housing market.

Demand Spikes: Demand surged in the past couple of weeks with a 38% rise.
COVID-19 has impacted the economy across the board. The economic data prior to the Coronavirus was pumping on all cylinders. Consumer confidence, consumption, unemployment, housing, stocks, leading economic indicators, everything was pointing to a phenomenal 2020. After the virus broke, every chart was impacted severely. Housing was no exception.

Experts have been debating what the economic recovery will look like. Initially, some experts were calling for a quick rebound, a “V-Shaped” bounce. That is when the economy rises nearly as fast as it falls. Yet, with more time to reflect on all the data, most experts now agree that it will be a “U-Shaped” recovery, one that after hitting a bottom will slowly but surely turn upward. The best analogy is a dimmer switch. As the dial is slowly turned, the economy will continue to accelerate until one day it is pumping on all cylinders again.

Housing is proving that it is an exception and is currently experiencing a “V-Shaped” recovery with demand soaring 38% in the past two weeks. How can that be? The sleeping giant has awakened. Even though life as everybody knows it has been turned upside down and California has only moved to “Phase 2,” record low interest rates are instigating demand. Dawning masks and gloves, buyers are viewing homes again and making offers.

Prior to the “stay at home” order in mid-March, housing was a sizzling hot Seller’s Market with extraordinarily little inventory and unbelievable demand. It was the hottest start to a Spring Market since 2013, a spring to remember for Orange County housing. Low mortgage rates, averaging 3.75%, was stoking the fires of demand. When the virus hit, demand plunged, and the market slowed.

Now that it has been a couple of months, flattening the Coronavirus curve has been successful so far. Slowly but surely more of the economy is coming back online. As a result, eager buyers who had been sitting on the fence waiting to purchase are jumping back in and ready to take advantage of record low mortgage rates at 3.25%.

In the past couple of weeks, demand (the last 30-days of pending sales) jumped from 1,172 pending sales to 1,622, a 38% rise. It was last at this level in mid-January. Typically, during this time of the year demand has already peaked and it does not change much at all. Not this year. Demand is in recovery mode and the sharp increase indicates that it is “V-Shaped.”

While some thought the housing market would take a major hit because of the Coronavirus, that could not be further from the truth. The low mortgage rate environment is a catalyst that has reignited demand. Despite furloughs and unimaginable unemployment, local real estate is revving its massive engine once again. Many are wondering where the demand is coming from. A lot of people are still gainfully employed, willing, and able to purchase. With rates at a record low, home affordability has dramatically improved from earlier in the year. The market was hot back then and it is no wonder that it is heating up again.

The active inventory climbed by 5% in the past two weeks, close to the 5-year average of 4.4% during this time of the year. The inventory remains at lows last seen in 2013. Surging demand is outpacing the rise in supply, resulting in the Expected Market Time (the time between hammering in the FOR-SALE sign and opening escrow) tumbling from 118 days to 90 days, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days). That is a market where sellers get to call more of the shots, yet home values are not changing much at all. Last year at this time, the Expected Market Time was at 84 days very close to today.