Vacation Rental & Airdna Numbers | What Am I Missing?

[Michael Glaser]

I never thought I'd be looking to do a vacation rental, but I think I've found a good deal. The house is in an area I often travel to get out of the big city and reset so it's a win-win for my sanity. It's a super small micro-market. Kicker is this is about 3-4hrs from Los Angeles where I work and live. 

Downloaded this spreadsheet from LEARNAIRBNB.COM

This is what I've come up with for a 1.Worst, 2. Likely & 3. Best/Airdna Date. 

Going to see the house tomorrow and am prequalified for a 5% down loan on a $260K sales price would put my mortgage at a $1,700 range. 

Occupancy tax in the town/county is 12%.

1. WORST: 12 day rental per month, $11,205 startup:

2. LIKELY: 16 day rental per month, $8,525 startup:

3. BEST: 25 nights per month, $11,205 startup:

(Airdna numbers is 25.5 at 84% occupancy per month with no signs of slowing/average night is $270, but mine would be a brand new interior/this model has only $5,000 in furnishing the entire house vs. the prior model that is $7,500 to furnish)

I know, I KNOW, 25 nights is a pipe dream, but that's what Airdna is giving me so it was even beyond my best scenarios so put it down for S's & gigs. Counting the nights by hand on Airbnb for properties of the like I think it's more realistic to say 16 - 20/nights a week. Summer is almost 28-30/nights or 97% occupancy. 

I've found a local maid service and I'd self manage from a far via Nest cameras and remote locks. I'd probably make some trips up Sundays to check weekend people out and make sure the property's initial stays went flawlessly as possible. 

I tried to do it with the BP calculator but it doesn't seem equipped:
LIKELY BP: