How accurate is AirDNA/Everbooked/Mashvisor?

[Carl Mccrory]

Hey BP. How accurate are short term vacation rental market research tools such as AirDNA, Everbooked, Mashvisor?

I am looking at Destin, FL and these sites are putting out numbers for a 2/2 condo as generating 40-50k in revenue a year on AirBNB. It will then show similar listings nearby with revenues they have made in the similar range (40-50k). Is this legit? Besides the variables of how well an Airbnb listing can do based on reviews, am i missing anything here?

[Martha Jardine Wilson]

@Carl Mccrory
Hey Carl, 

Here's a quick summary of how we gather and process our data here at AirDNA

1. Every day we ping five million rental listings around the world and look for any changes to the availability of every calendar day over the next year
2. We record any changes to the calendar and record some key characteristics such as length of stay, booking lead time, property booking history, reviews, host response rates, and much more.
3. Our proprietary algorithm analyzes every new set of unavailable calendar days to determine whether the dates are a reservation or blocked by the owner
4. We then record each unique reservation and determine the value of each reservation using the rates that were available the day before the booking was made.

How the algorithm works:
In 2015, we were able to secure a dataset of over 30 million actual Airbnb reservations. We were able to dissect each of the reservations to create a list of signals, that in combination, could predict what is a reservation vs. a blocked set of dates with 92% accuracy.

Over the course of the last few years, we've acquired data on over 100,000 short-term rentals from an assortment of software provides and large vacation rental managers which allow us to continually adapt our model to the evolving marketplace.

So.. how accurate is all of this algorithmically generated data?
Is our data 100% fail proof? Absolutely not. Is it light years ahead of anything else on the market? There's no doubt in our minds. 
CBRE has compared our algorithm output with Airbnb's official announcements and has found it extremely close. Our estimate for the total revenue generated by every listing in the DC market for an entire year was 96.2% accurate. 

Feel free to reach out to us and we can discuss Destin, FL in more detail.