Group consensus on a deal

[Michael Gangemi]

I found a brand new townhome in Kissimmee with luxury finishes, resort style amenities, the whole nine. The price is $435K and I was thinking of doing 20% down. This townhome is a 5 bed/ 4 bath with 2020 sqft so it's got more than enough room for bigger families while also being versatile to smaller families who may want to use the extra rooms for storing clothes and suitcases. With a $5,000 rebate back at closing I'm looking to buy down the rate by a point. AirDNA gave me the following estimates: $300/night | 65% Occupancy |$71,100 Revenue with this data I feel comfortable making a move on this one. Let me know your thoughts

[Ryan Moyer]

I have 12 in the area.  The estimates you're getting from AirDNA are way high and out of date.  You're not going to rent that place for $300nt at 71% occupancy or anywhere near that with the extreme saturation in both number of properties and quality of property over the last 2 years.

Disney was slow in the offseason but traffic there has bounced back with avengeance.  It is ridiculously packed there right now.  The problem is the supply and quality of vacation rentals is through the roof.  A regular really nice 5 br townhouse with resort amenities might be a top end desirable unit in Cocoa Beach but it's probably going to be bottom 20th percentile in this market.

As an example, this place is available for $135/nt next week. https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/1002836101465378764

And there are thousands of others like it.  How does the place you're looking at compare to that?