Gatlinburg maybe? Where to invest 50-70k investment for 80k + return

[Bill Denney]

So after countless hours of scanning multiple markets, I’m wondering if prices are too inflated in the hot markets for a great return. 

Before I get into the markets I’m considering: my question is: in which of these markets could I reasonably hit a target of 50-70k invested with annual profits over 80k? (10% down lending options are a go as I’m not invested in any of the following). I don’t think those numbers are too unrealistic (maybe I’m wrong) but a great cabin in the smokies can easily do 80k plus-  I’m just not sure if prices and interest rates are too inflated to currently hit that target given my budget. 

1. The smokies… it’s the king of markets but it’s expensive. Avery Carl says “you can change a cabin but not the view” - and Bill Faeth is a big proponent of having a unique distinguishing feature. Problem is -anything with a view is a 2/2 or 2/1 for that budget above. I also talked to a local realtor and she said the inventory shortage has cabins way over-priced and many people are underwater. This seems especially true in the smokies - should I wait until prices drop (possibly in the off-season)??

2. Outer banks. Seems like you need 550k+ for a 4bdrm. Given the season is just 9 months thats an awful big monthly payment on a 10% down loan at the current interest rates. Is the season strong enough to still net 80k+ after paying a $3500+ mortgage every month during the winter?

3. Banner elk, Boone, beech mountain, blue ridge - all these mountain markets are confusing. I hear people post that they are doing well there but then I look on Airbnb and see insanely great 3-4 bedrooms with killer views renting for less than 200 a night… seems like a risk. Especially without major tourism infrastructure that I’m aware of.

4. Areas I’m not necessarily considering but I understand I probably should - Branson (just no thank you… I’d like to be able to use the property every now and then and I have zero desire to go to Missouri). Also not drawn to the emerald or forgotten coasts. Architecture seems kind of plain Jane. 
Not interested in anything out west I’m in the Midwest and like the idea of being able to drive to a property if I’d like or need to. 

Thank you for reading and any insight you might have. 

[JD Martin]

You are essentially asking if anyone can direct you to any markets in which you can expect to make over 100% annual return. If anyone knows any markets like that I doubt they're going to share them here (I know I wouldn't as that would be a gold mine). 

Even if a great cabin in Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge did 80k that's not going to be your profit. Let's assume you could buy something for $500k that brought in $80k gross per year. You're going to put $70k down and get a note for $430k. That's going to be about $3k per month just for principal and interest. For easy numbers put another $1k in there for taxes and insurance. So just your PITI is $4k per month. That puts you at $50k in expenses annual before you add in any other costs of doing business. Unless you think a cabin like that is going to bring in $150k gross which is where you get your $80k from.

Real estate is a long game. If you make an annual return of 10-20% that is a very good return. Most people are having trouble making anywhere near that right now because 7-8% interest rates are eating their margins.