STR Deal Analysis - Seller Financing Marrakesh Morocco

[Ian Tyndall]

Hello everyone!  I am considering expanding overseas and looking at a property in Marrakesh, Morocco, and would like to your thoughts on this property.  My offer has been accepted, and I need to decide if I go through with it this week or not.  Here is some information:

4B/4B Riad in Bab Doukkala (just meters from the Medina), with pool and highest rooftop view in the area.  Comes fully furnished.
Purchase Price:  €280,00
Down payment: 50%
Cash to close: €165,422
Loan: 5%, term 5 years
Monthly PITI: €2,962
USD to Euro is $0.91 currently, but will probably strengthen in the next couple of months

I used the enemy method of comping other Airbnbs with 4B in the same neighborhood.  I think that nightly rates could range between $214 - 320.  Occupancy looks pretty good for the area with May being about 40-50% booked.

If I assumed the worst case (lowest pricing and 40% occupancy, the monthly rents would be $2,611 and annually that would be $31,330).
Most likely case is $250 per night at 50% occupancy.  Monthly rates would be $3,813 which would be $45,750 per year.
Optimistic would be $320 per night at 50-60% occupancy which would range $4,880-5850 per month, and $58k-70k per year.

I know that the rents are in $ but I would collect rents in € because the loan will need to be repaid in EUR, and I will want to limit my FX exposure until I get the loan paid off.

Thoughts on this deal?  My wife is nervous about it being so far away from our comfort zone.