What was the impact of Covid in the Smokies?

[Corbin Loveless]

1. I'm not a data scientist or statistician. 

2. These numbers are my opinion and have been compiled from Air DNA. I don't believe Air DNA is a perfect data source, and I believe you can find inconsistencies depending on when the data is pulled and lagging inputs.

That said, I thought it would be interesting to add some data to all the discussions around 2022 STR demand in the Smoky Mountains.

While park data from the NPS is not yet available for 2022- I've pasted the # of visits to GSMNP below for those keeping track. 

NPS: 

2018- 11,421,200

2019- 12,547,743 (10% growth y/y)

2020- 12,095,720 (-4% growth y/y)

2021- 14,161,548 (17% growth y/y)

2022- TBD

Source: irma.nps.gov/STATS

While It looks like there's some credence to the discussions of reduced rental demand, it doesn't appear to be significant (3%-7% depending on the number of bedrooms). I agree that 2021 demand was not sustainable, but I don't think the data paints a bleak picture of the Smoky Mtn rental market.  In my opinion, these numbers show the overall impact of the pandemic on tourism in this area was significantly positive (2019 vs. 2022).

This data strengthens my take on the Smokies and recommendations to my clients as a Realtor. 1. The Smoky Mtns are hard to beat for STR rental demand. 2. Choose your property wisely. Base your investment decisions on the property, not the average. 3. Tether yourself to longstanding investment criteria and consider all four wealth-building strategies in your investing (appreciation, cash flow, loan pay down, tax benefits).