A tenant who always pays late and wants a bigger place

[Ari Bachrach]

I have a tenant who has been in one of my houses for almost a year. His first two months he paid on time. Since then he's paid late every single month. But he has paid and is otherwise a responsible guy. I hired him to do some landscaping work at a new place I'm rehabbing that will be listed soon. He asked if he could move to the newer bigger place. His current rent is 1100/mo, and the new place would be 1500/mo. I told him I was worried since he seemed to be having trouble making 1100/mo payments I wasn't sure if he could make 1500/mo payments. He tells me that he got hit hard by COVID (he's a landscaper) and lost income, but he thinks he should be able to make 1500/mo. I'm worried about it - he was always late and seems to be just scraping by, I don't want the extra 400/mo in rent to bury him financially. How would you handle this? Normally I look for an income of 3x rent, but I'm not sure how to apply that to the last year given how abnormal 2020 was.