Rental Market is Untested in a Recession

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Rental Market is Untested in a Recession

Michael Temple
Rental Property Investor · Toledo, OH · Member since 2017 · 257 posts · 215 votes

I came across this article this morning in the Wall Street Journal. Hopefully, everyone can get to it without hitting the paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/t...

Just in case you do hit the paywall, I will do a quick summary. The gist of the article is that our "asset-light" economy where more people than ever rent homes, lease cars, and use streaming services for entertainment has never been tested in a recession. We have this new model that has emerged after the 2008 great recession where people have decided owning stuff is no longer a priority. Instead, they want to essentially rent (lease, subscribe, etc.) to all the things they use in life. This model has never really been tested in a bad recession, so what happens? Do any of these people that serve as our tenants suddenly leave our rentals to find cheaper digs, dump their car leases, and stop subscribing to Netflix? The article basically says we don't really know.

It is an interesting question. If you bought property based on being able to achieve a certain level rent and in a bad recession people simply leave and find a lower rent place and nobody will rent your place at your pre-recession level that you depended on to make all the numbers work what is your contingency plan?

I am not sure I have one personally, but I am at least thinking about it now. I know one of the main arguments I hear from people when I have suggested this, albeit in a different form, is everyone needs a place to live so we are all safe. That is true, but at what level of rent do they need a place to live? That is the question here. They may need a place to live, but they may not need to live in YOUR place and pay YOUR required rent. They could just move to a cheaper place to weather the storm and then find a nicer place later. They are mobile and largely uncommitted to large fixed monthly expenses. They may leave some people with high debt loads on rentals in bad shape. 

Thoughts?

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JD MartinBusiness Member
Moderator
Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
6y

My contingency plan consists of several things:

1. Owning most of my properties outright: As someone who has lost a lot of money on RE before, I am probably more conservative financially than most people on BP. If you don't have to make a mortgage, you don't need a whole lot of money to see a return, even if the return is paltry. It also allows me to drop rents significantly if ever necessary to keep units rented. I could suffer more than 50% vacancy across all my properties and still be profitable enough to live off my investments. 

2. Owning my properties in a steady growing Sunbelt area: the trend in the US has been from North to South, East to West for over 40 years now and really doesn't show any signs of abating. Cost of living + climate virtually assures a steady stream of retirees, which will continue to put pressure on housing where I live. I feel, barring some apocalyptic scenario, this will continue at least until I'm dead.

3. Renting above Section 8 levels but below luxury levels: my homes typically rent for $750-1200. Anything less than that gets you an apartment where I am, and the apartments are not likely to get much cheaper. I can absorb anyone falling down the ladder, and most people will cut out Netflix before they go homeless. I'm also not dependent on government subsidies for housing.

4. Having a "day job": I'm close to retirement but still healthy and working. Everything the rental business generates goes back to the business or reserves. 

5. Having SFHs: I can sell off anything that I feel doesn't make enough money any more rather than keep it as an albatross. It's a little bit of diversification rather than owning 1 or 2 apartment complexes that require selling to an investor (and losing all of your units at once). 

So I feel pretty protected from everything but a disaster, in which case all bets are off anyway. As for the WSJ article, there's some truth to it, but home ownership levels are really back at a sustainable level than where they used to be. If anything, I suspect home ownership will continue to decline over time. Besides, home ownership is lower than the US in a number of European countries (Germany, Austria, for example) and it hasn't been a economy crusher there. In some ways, firms/professionals owning the homes and renting them out is more efficient than a ton of people owning their own homes - as evidenced by the poor condition many homeowners keep their homes. In theory, owning a home should provide you housing stability - you never truly "own" the home, as you have to pay taxes at a minimum - but for homeowners that are not handy and are broke, you often see the homes deteriorate to the point of worthlessness, until someone like the people on BP swoop in and buy the wreck, invest $50k and turn it back on the market. Without that happening, the supply of housing stock would stay stagnant or even decrease, putting more pressure on the housing market. 

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  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    6y

    ...or, the impact of all those monthly bills for these services are one of the catalysts that control the severity of a recession.

    3Reply
  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    6y

    I have bought all my properties at the right price point. People will still need a place to live. My rentals are not the $2000/month places but the $800 to $1000 range places. I believe that when we do have another recession I can weather the storm. I also don't believe a recession is eminent.

    4Reply
  • Michael Temple
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Toledo, OH · Member since 2017 · 257 posts · 215 votes
    6y

    @John Underwood Personally, I think that might be the key here is not having super high-end properties and making sure that your numbers leave enough leeway that you could cut your rent by a decent chunk and still be OK.

    However, I will say that for me personally that is proving harder than it sounds. Once you figure in mortgage, interest, taxes, and insurance I am not finding I have a ton of room in there that I could lower my rent by a substantial amount, say 30% reduction, would hurt pretty bad, especially if it was across the board on all your rentals and YOUR lifestyle depended on keeping cash flow at a certain level.

    3Reply
  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Michael Temple:

    @John Underwood Personally, I think that might be the key here is not having super high-end properties and making sure that your numbers leave enough leeway that you could cut your rent by a decent chunk and still be OK.

    However, I will say that for me personally that is proving harder than it sounds. Once you figure in mortgage, interest, taxes, and insurance I am not finding I have a ton of room in there that I could lower my rent by a substantial amount, say 30% reduction, would hurt pretty bad, especially if it was across the board on all your rentals and YOUR lifestyle depended on keeping cash flow at a certain level.

    Luckily I have paid cash for all my long term rentals so I would have it easier than someone that has all mortgages.

    I have a vacation rental on the Lake. I think when people start conserving they take vacations close to home and I also benefit from this. I believe I would see less people from 4 states away and more people that live within a easy drive.

    5Reply
  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    6y

    People will always need a place to live; but maybe not there. Recessions hit certain items and areas more than others. The Dot.Com bust hammered San Francisco and Silicon Valley real hard but other areas were pretty much unaware. Detroit was the center of the universe at one time but has not been for a long time. In the last recession some areas suffered badly, others not so much. LL are even suffering today in this market because they ignored the basics. As long as you underwrote properly in the first place and always have money, or access to money you should be OK. Never go looking for money when you need it!!

    5Reply
  • Michael Temple
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Toledo, OH · Member since 2017 · 257 posts · 215 votes
    6y

    @Bjorn Ahlblad That is a really good point as well. In the 2008 recession real estate in Vegas, Florida, and California were a blood bath, but in my area while houses definitely went down in value it didn't seem like we got hit nearly as hard. I barely noticed the decline at the time, but I also wasn't into real estate investments at the time either.

    Your other point is also well taken, having cash reserves and being able to tap credit when things tighten up is a key strategy. I do remember in 2007 before the crash my banker advising me to set up a HELOC. I explained I had no use for one at the time and wasn't really motivated to do it, but she told me that while I may not see what is happening in the banking industry, she as an insider, did and that a big crash was coming. She said a day in the not too distant future would come where people that wanted credit wouldn't be able to get it, but those that had lines set up would be fine.

    While I didn't fully grasp what was coming I decided to heed her advice and did set up a few credit lines including the HELOC. About 6 months later the crash hit and credit dried up across the board. I remember checking with the bank manager to make sure they wouldn't close my lines and he told me that wouldn't happen, but he said it was REALLY difficult to get anything new opened. Long story short I sailed through the crash with little impact because I had lines of credit, good income, and minimal debt. So your point is spot on. Don't try to borrow when you need it because you might be SOL.

    2Reply
  • Dennis M.
    Rental Property Investor · Erie, PA · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 9k+ votes
    6y

    Fake news that’s probably written by some millennial punk who lives in his mothers basement , this is a people based industry and people have not changed much since the garden .people have been tested for thousands of years during hard times .Those living above their means will down size to an apartment smaller home or move to areas more affordable . Those living within their means will tighten their belt and be fine . As noted .. people will always need a place to stay regardless . Where will they go ? A bush ? A tree? Under a bridge ? The rental market will go on just as it always has .

    6Reply
  • Scott Mac
    Austin, TX · Member since 2019 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    6y

    This is what happens.

    When times get bad people tend to bunch up, (two or three families in a unit sometimes) relatives and friends.

    Some live outdoors and either survive or perish or end up in jail (trespass, theft, drugs, on the taxpayers dime).

    Some live in their vehicles until the police seize them for unpaid registration or unpaid insurance and they they are outside (as above).

    Some go to homeless shelters, some go on section-8 (which can take years in some cases with waiting lists going to preferential groups first).

    And some move to areas with more employment opportunities and start working there.

    Just my 2 cents.

    2Reply
  • Harriet Baldwin
    Financial Advisor · Elmira, NY · Member since 2015 · 132 posts · 67 votes
    6y

    Thanks for the link @Michael Temple. Two thoughts - 

    1-Corollary to what @Michael Temple, @Bjorn Ahlblad and @John Underwood have said - WSJ piece doesn't address this, but it seems likely that in an economic downturn, the rental market could to see more turnover of tenants.  I agree that demand is likely to stay solid at the middle & bottom of the rental market and that demand at the top of the rental market will probably soften (perhaps dramatically, in select markets).  But even the middle & bottom of the rental market are likely to see shorter tenancies and/or more frequent early lease exits - so, slightly higher vacancy rates and/or turnover costs, even if demand is strong.

    2-Once upon a time (25+ years ago) I worked for a top Wall Street analyst who followed regional banks.  I learned that the recession always comes eventually, but that the banks mess up a different thing each cycle - that so far, the banks haven't messed up the same thing two times in a row.  So the next recession is unlikely to be lead by or dominated by housing. Not that housing won't suffer, but it is unlikely to be the center of the pain.  As always, past performance is no indicator of future returns lol.

    Aside - that WSJ graph on homeownership makes the 69% peak in 2004 look like the outlier, and the current 64% rate more typical over the long run.  Might have to go online and find pre-1980 figures to see what longer ago looked like...in my spare time lol.

    4Reply
  • Parker Eberhard
    Contractor · Seattle, WA · Member since 2019 · 339 posts · 325 votes
    6y

    @Michael Temple I could see something like this happening...you have your apartment that you have been renting for $1000 a month. Recession hits and and your current tenant can now only afford a $800 month rent; they move out. The guy done the street has been getting $1200 a month for his apartment because it is $200 a month nicer than yours. His tenant, who can now only afford a $1000 a month apartment, comes knocking on your door...I know that this scenario needs to have a somewhat more financially diverse group of people, but I think this is what could happen

    2Reply
  • JD MartinBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    6y

    My contingency plan consists of several things:

    1. Owning most of my properties outright: As someone who has lost a lot of money on RE before, I am probably more conservative financially than most people on BP. If you don't have to make a mortgage, you don't need a whole lot of money to see a return, even if the return is paltry. It also allows me to drop rents significantly if ever necessary to keep units rented. I could suffer more than 50% vacancy across all my properties and still be profitable enough to live off my investments. 

    2. Owning my properties in a steady growing Sunbelt area: the trend in the US has been from North to South, East to West for over 40 years now and really doesn't show any signs of abating. Cost of living + climate virtually assures a steady stream of retirees, which will continue to put pressure on housing where I live. I feel, barring some apocalyptic scenario, this will continue at least until I'm dead.

    3. Renting above Section 8 levels but below luxury levels: my homes typically rent for $750-1200. Anything less than that gets you an apartment where I am, and the apartments are not likely to get much cheaper. I can absorb anyone falling down the ladder, and most people will cut out Netflix before they go homeless. I'm also not dependent on government subsidies for housing.

    4. Having a "day job": I'm close to retirement but still healthy and working. Everything the rental business generates goes back to the business or reserves. 

    5. Having SFHs: I can sell off anything that I feel doesn't make enough money any more rather than keep it as an albatross. It's a little bit of diversification rather than owning 1 or 2 apartment complexes that require selling to an investor (and losing all of your units at once). 

    So I feel pretty protected from everything but a disaster, in which case all bets are off anyway. As for the WSJ article, there's some truth to it, but home ownership levels are really back at a sustainable level than where they used to be. If anything, I suspect home ownership will continue to decline over time. Besides, home ownership is lower than the US in a number of European countries (Germany, Austria, for example) and it hasn't been a economy crusher there. In some ways, firms/professionals owning the homes and renting them out is more efficient than a ton of people owning their own homes - as evidenced by the poor condition many homeowners keep their homes. In theory, owning a home should provide you housing stability - you never truly "own" the home, as you have to pay taxes at a minimum - but for homeowners that are not handy and are broke, you often see the homes deteriorate to the point of worthlessness, until someone like the people on BP swoop in and buy the wreck, invest $50k and turn it back on the market. Without that happening, the supply of housing stock would stay stagnant or even decrease, putting more pressure on the housing market. 

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    11Reply
  • Brent Crosby
    Rental Property Investor · Farmington, UT · Member since 2018 · 171 posts · 148 votes
    6y

    @Michael Temple what I’m most curious to see tested in a recession is the short term rentals market. This emerged since the last recession and now is driving up housing prices in certain areas. I can’t imagine that a recession will do Airbnb’s any favors...

    2Reply
  • Michael Temple
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Toledo, OH · Member since 2017 · 257 posts · 215 votes
    6y

    @Account Closed "On the plus side, they are the rare golden windows of opportunity to load up on assets at distressed levels of discount- If you have some dry powder when it comes, you should end up wealthier down the road than if it never happened."

    So true! I wish I would have had a truckload of money back in 2008 & 2009 I could have an amazing portfolio today, but my focus was in a different place back then and I didn't have the cash or interest in RE investing so I missed out, possibly on the best buying opportunity in my lifetime. Doh!

    @JD Martin Awesome points! A couple of things, yes, not being over-leveraged probably is good in any business, not just real estate. You are definitely more flexible and lighter on your feet if you aren't being weighed down by a ton of debt. Second point about the homeownership rates, you are probably onto something there. I didn't think of it until I read your response, but the peak of 69% everyone keeps citing was probably artificial because you had so many people that shouldn't have been buying houses that were. The 64% is probably the sustainable long term average once you get rid of the no money down and no doc loans of the subprime mess.

    @Brent Crosby That is an interesting question. I have a pretty big amusement park about 45 minutes east of me and I have been toying with the idea of buying a short term rental in the town nearby and run a short term rental business to see if that would do well supplying overnight accommodations to people visiting the park. I also wonder how this market would hold up in a recession. The possible exit strategy is to rent it long term during a recession like a regular rental. That would probably work as long as you didn't have some huge super nice vacation type property in the Outer Banks or something and it was a "normal" house that could be converted back to a regular rental if needed.

    1Reply
  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    6y

    Listen to the guys with grey hair that have lived through a few recessions. The mid-level, blue-collar neighborhoods are pretty stable. When a recession hits, A-class and B-class tenants are likely to downsize their spending and housing is the biggest expense they have.

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  • Brent Crosby
    Rental Property Investor · Farmington, UT · Member since 2018 · 171 posts · 148 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Michael Temple:

    @Account Closed "On the plus side, they are the rare golden windows of opportunity to load up on assets at distressed levels of discount- If you have some dry powder when it comes, you should end up wealthier down the road than if it never happened."

    So true! I wish I would have had a truckload of money back in 2008 & 2009 I could have an amazing portfolio today, but my focus was in a different place back then and I didn't have the cash or interest in RE investing so I missed out, possibly on the best buying opportunity in my lifetime. Doh!

    @JD Martin Awesome points! A couple of things, yes, not being over-leveraged probably is good in any business, not just real estate. You are definitely more flexible and lighter on your feet if you aren't being weighed down by a ton of debt. Second point about the homeownership rates, you are probably onto something there. I didn't think of it until I read your response, but the peak of 69% everyone keeps citing was probably artificial because you had so many people that shouldn't have been buying houses that were. The 64% is probably the sustainable long term average once you get rid of the no money down and no doc loans of the subprime mess.

    @Brent Crosby That is an interesting question. I have a pretty big amusement park about 45 minutes east of me and I have been toying with the idea of buying a short term rental in the town nearby and run a short term rental business to see if that would do well supplying overnight accommodations to people visiting the park. I also wonder how this market would hold up in a recession. The possible exit strategy is to rent it long term during a recession like a regular rental. That would probably work as long as you didn't have some huge super nice vacation type property in the Outer Banks or something and it was a "normal" house that could be converted back to a regular rental if needed.

    Of course. In areas where that’s possible it’s the obvious play. I’m just seeing so many people get into short term rentals that could not profitably be rented long term. 
     

    0Reply
  • Dylan H.
    Rental Property Investor · Savannah, GA · Member since 2018 · 174 posts · 129 votes
    6y

    @Michael Temple

    I think the $800-1200/month is kind of the sweet spot. It’s working class people that are not splurging on their rent or location of rent. Also, I think the better vetted your renters are the safer you are as well for a market correction or recession. If your renters are all beating the 3x rent for monthly income they are probably also ok to weather the storm in your property as well.

    3Reply
  • Ola Dantis
    Multifamily Syndicator · Houston, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    My thought is what if this impending recession never happens for at least a couple of decades and all we get is a measly market correction, which most of the population don't even notice because most are too busy watching Netflix in their Ubers on their way to the swanky apartments. 

    Just what if... 🤔🤔🤔

    1Reply
  • Patrick M.
    Rental Property Investor · Red Bank, NJ · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    Fear has no place in my business model. Preparation, proper screening, conservative monetary policy- yes. 

    Run your business like a business and you are good to go. 

    0Reply
  • Bob Daniels
    Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 294 votes
    6y

    Consumer spending has not changed in the last 10 years to even be a blip on an investors radar.

    people renting homes is not new

    people leasing cars is not new

    people renting movies is not new

    The only thing that is new is the media's constant pursuit of more and more sensational headlines, because it doesn't matter if the story is true or not, what matters is that the you clicked on their article.

    1Reply
  • Jill F.
    Investor · Akron, OH · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y
    LOL, they aren't going to get any cheaper than my cheapest property. Even the some of the boarding houses are higher. I can't WAIT until this reno is done! My TENANTS are even looking foward to paying more (for the nicer digs).
    0Reply
  • Andres Gomez
    Rental Property Investor · byron, IL · Member since 2018 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    6y

    @Michael Temple, at some point one would have to assume all the "cheap" rentals will be taken, leaving more expensive rentals. Let's assume we dont lower rents, but instead tenants get roommates. Lastly, no one sends your paycheck, mail, or Amazon deliveries to your car. This culture has to have a physical address somewhere, for Amazon to drop merchandise at.

    We wont really know till we cross that bridge.

    0Reply
  • Andreas W.
    Durham, NC · Member since 2013 · 502 posts · 215 votes
    6y

    A "regular" recession doesn't cause a blood bath in the RE sector as we have seen 10 years ago when there were a lot of evictions in the lower cost rentals. A lot of compression occurred through bunching up and room mate situations. It is very helpful to be able to reduce rent for a year in order to keep a good tenant. But if your tenant loses his/her job and lives month to month, a rent reduction doesn't' cut it. 

    0Reply
  • Jan Kerr
    REI Mentor · Perry, UT · Member since 2019 · 101 posts · 123 votes
    6y

    Market cycles are predictable for the most part. Anyone who is paying attention and knows where to look can see the corrections coming and predict them along with the upturns. Some places have low slow steady growth. They don't get the exagerated fluctuations like we see in marktes on the west and east coasts. I have watched and followed three complete cycles in my career as an investor and mentor. Most cycles take 10-15 years to make a compete cycle. Some places on the low end like Utah (10 years average), due to influx of new residents and a high birth rate. Utah tends to be very business friendly and manages the state budgets quite well. Others becasue of comfortable climates see steady growth even with some goverment mis-management. When housing sales trend downward, rental demand increases out of fear of a recession. People tend not to buy if they think values are going down becasue they don't want to over pay and end up, up-side-down on value vs mortgage debt. I have not seen landlords lowering rents during any part of the cycle. They simply freeze rents and don't raise them until demand allows them to do so without losing good tenants. Usually no more than a couple of years within that cycle. Each market is different and independent of the other, so housing prices can be going up like a rocket in one part of the country and down in another part at the same time. 

    Don't get sucked into any media hype about what the markets are doing. learn where and how to gather the data yourself. I regularly use the Federal Housing Finance Agency website to get real home sales data on every metro area within the US. They publish a House Price Index Report every quarter. It takes them nearly 2 months to get it published after the data is collected at the end of each quarter. End of March, June, September and December. We will see the third quarter report at the end of November. The current one is for the second quarter results ending in June. Each report is about 80 pages long. If statistics and numbers turn you on, have fun reading the whole thing, but I read only about 15 pages of the whole report to get the data I need. It changes each time which pages I need to refer to, but I'd be happy to explain how to find it if anyone needs to know. Feel free to message me.

    0Reply
  • Greg M.
    Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    6y

    Can't really say that I'm impressed by the article. Seems to gloss over lots of stuff and takes a very simplistic view of everything.

    Homeownership is now at 64% vs the peak of 69%. The article states that it "never recovered". It sounds like the author is pegging 69% as what the homeownership rate should be. Pulling 60 years of homeownership rates, they were at a low of 62.1% in 1960, hit a high of 69% in 2004, and are now down to 64.1% for 2019. However, if you average those 60 years, you come up with an average of 65%. Not exactly an earth shaking difference between now and the historical average and I suspect statistically no meaningful difference.

    Starting in 1996, the homeownership percentage noticeably starts to rise. This is right after President Clinton signed the 1995 Community Reinvestment Act and put pressure on banks to lower their standards so that more low income and minorities could purchase homes. The increase in homeownership continued until the crash and has dropped back to historical levels.

    Surveys have also shown that millennials list homeownership as a top priority. The hold back is that they do not have the savings for a downpayment and they have other debt like student loans. They aren't renting because they want to and there is some dramatic change in how they view homeownership, but rather they have to address other issues first.

    2Reply
  • Michael Temple
    OP
    Rental Property Investor · Toledo, OH · Member since 2017 · 257 posts · 215 votes
    6y

    @Jan Kerr I agree with your point about seeing this stuff coming. However the problem I think everyone runs into is even if you see it coming you have to be able to survive and hopefully thrive in the downturn. Unfortunately how bad a downturn is going to be or last is often outside of our control, which drives me bonkers. I would say that regardless if you think the article is valid or total crap is simply to use it as a data point of what *could* be a problem in some circumstances and be forwarned to at least prepare a possible plan to counter. It may turn out to be nothing or it could be something. Either way apply the old Boy Scout plan, of be prepared.

    @Greg M. I agree, your thought crossed my mind as well when I first read this which as you said the author seems to suggest there is this "healthy" or "normal" level to home ownership and somehow we aren't at that level so it must be a problem we haven't recovered from. It is quite true that many people that did own homes back before the crash probably shouldn't have or least shouldn't have owned the homes they did or to use their houses as an ATM machine. When all of this phantom equity suddenly caused their house to "double in value" in a year.

    I agree with many others that the sensational headlines of these stories get a little annoying. It does seem we have a new prediction every few days that the sky is falling and the recession is on our doorstep and it will be 20 times worse than anyone believes. The stock market drops 400 points and then a week later another story comes out that basically says "well things may not be as bad as we thought after all" and the market rises 500 points until the next day when the next sky is falling prediction comes and we keep repeating this over and over. It does get a bit tiring after a while.

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