Estimating markets occupancy/vacancy for AirBNB deal?

[Ian Robertson]

Howdy BP,

I've been evaluating some properties to try out as potential AirBNB property. I have a pretty good model worked out and returns are looking good. The thing that worries me is making (essentially) a complete guess on vacancy in a market. There are services online that claim to know the local vacancy but IMO those services couldn't possibly have accurate information as AirBNB doesn't appear to publish it anywhere.

Any thoughts on how to make a prediction that is accurate enough to share with potential investors?

Thank you in advance!