How will post-COVID evictions affect the market in 2022?

[Richard Davis]

I’m trying to get a handle on whether a wave of successful evictions is going to hit Atlanta in the first half of 2022 and, if so, what this will do to the real estate in the area (rentals or sales).

Here’s why I think a completed-eviction wave might hit: The eviction moratorium has ended (on August 26th, when the Supreme Court struck down the last extension on the moratorium … right?) and the processing time for evictions in most of the counties in the Atlanta metro area (Cobb Clayton Fulton DeKalb and Rockdale) range from about 100 to about 290 days. That gives a range of early December 2021 to mid-June 2022 for the completion of evictions that were submitted shortly after the moratorium ended. So maybe there’ll be a wave of evictions in those counties staggered across that period.

Gwinnett County, btw, takes only about 58 days to process evictions, so I’d be interested to know if there’s already been a wave of completed evictions there starting in late October.

These figures (58, 100, 290 days) are coming from my realtor, and I’m trying to get them verified.

But I’ve also heard that a lot of renters who were behind on rent during 2021 managed to get state financial assistance rather than getting evicted. So I’m not sure a significant wave of evictions will actually materialize. I hope it does not, since evictions = suffering for everyone, but as a real estate investor, my strategy depends heavily on knowing if it will.

So.. does anyone know if the expected wave of evictions has already been happening or will happen in 2022 (either nationally or in and around Atlanta)? And how this has or will affect rental and sales prices for real estate?

Usually there’s a substantial boost in sales price for units in June (compared to the previous December). I’m considering holding a certain property to sell till June to take advantage of this higher summer price, but I’m wondering if a wave of evictions in the first half of 2022 is likely to add inventory to the market, thus substantially increasing supply and so mitigating or reversing the usual May-July price jump.

Any data, experience, insight, or corrections of mistaken assumptions/data on my part is appreciated! Thank you!