Preparing for the Apocalypse.

Preparing for the Apocalypse.

Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 208 posts · 282 votes

The new government in DC is barely 60 days old.

Yet one of the most noticeable early goals it has set for itself is the repeal of Dodd-Frank.

Although this law is more complex than most people seem to think,it might be worth your while as a real estate investor to google it and familiarize yourself with some of what it does and doesn't.

Those BP members who were in the game in 2006-2008 understand that Real Estate can be a blood sport.

We like to beat up on stocks.We like to say an entire stock portfolio can be wiped out by some extenuating circumstances while real estate is tangible and can be driven to,visited and touched.

However,thanks to NINA and NINJA loans (google them),real estate proved every inch as dangerous as stocks in 2006-2008.

At least when most people own stocks,it's usually almost all their own capital.When mortgages go bad,you not only lose your own equity,but now you own a ginormous amount of money to a lender who must foreclose on you.Bankruptcy may follow as value add.

I feel it's my responsibility as an experienced investor to throw this out here at this time in our national political journey for those newbies who keep salivating over all these tempting threads on BP about "so and so" buying "150 units in 12 months".

Now more than ever,it's extremely important to learn from the bitter lessons of the not too distant past.

leverage is a two-edged sword.The wise ensure they purchase a sheath as well.

The new government's policy post-repeal of Dodd-Frank (if it's that easy) may well birth an unprecedented job growth explosion and asset appreciation that we never have to worry about rental units vacancies again.

But experience tells every savvy investor that is a pie-in-the-sky expectation.

So what is my company doing to prepare for what is to come?

1.Equity

It's not a surprise that the stability in the market over the past decade since the sub-prime crisis can be linked to the elimination of NINA and NINJA loans.

When investors must have a skin in the game,speculators leave the industry for the real professionals who actually know what they are doing.

Speculators belong in Vegas.

True professionals don't hold 90-100% of their portfolio with less than 3% equity.That's a suicide party waiting to happen.

We are not a fan of this whole "creative financing" and "No money down (NMD)" movement on BP.

It's cool if it helps gives some average Joe their start in real estate,but when it becomes your sole strategy,you will surely get eaten when the apocalypse arrives.

We currently hold all assets in a 25% Equity position.You don't have to be the only one coming up with equity.Find partners.

Skin in the game is where it's at.

There's a good reason banks talk of LTV and DSCR when you apply for loans.The new government may get rid of all that as part of the coming repeal of all those "evil" regulations.

Currently,on many of our duplexes,rent from one unit alone covers the mortgage payment.

We believe that to be almost recession-proof.

2.Location!Location!!Location!!!

It's a cliche.

However,one other fad we have seen on BP is this pull to lower priced markets (I won't mention names so as not to offend sensibilities,but you probably know them).

The reality of the business is that these markets are lower priced for a reason.

You may be getting an assassin's cash flow and C-O-C returns today from your units in these markets but when jobs hemorrhage in a recession,your cash flow rapidly turn negative.

Big markets suffer less in a massive recession.Occupancy and vacancies mirror what the local job market is doing.

The sole reason I relocated to Jacksonville from Cleveland in 2011 is to stop being an "out-of state investor".

That brings me to the other point under this topic.

We saw a very lucrative 16-unit listed some 18 months ago.Well,it should be lucrative,except despite listing at an attractive price,most interested buyers couldn't get the numbers to work.

The numbers didn't work because the out-of-state owners were getting absolutely wiped out year-on-year by phony expenses logged by their "boots-on-the-ground" and PMs.

Even in strong markets,it's crucial to buy in good parts of town.That way,when vacancies inevitably occur during the apocalypse ,your copper wiring or HVACs won't be stolen....or your property vandalized.

Choose your market wisely.

**

Are there any other steps you're taking to prepare for what is to come?

Let me know in the comments.

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  • Investor · Zürich, Zürich · Member since 2016 · 292 posts · 115 votes
    9y

    "Are there any other steps you're taking to prepare for what is to come?"

    Jup. Slingshot with lots of decent sized bolts. Baseball bat. Not yet sure whether I should get a wodden one or metal. And at least in the beginning, while there is still enough amunition around, my side pistols, one revolver, one semi-auto. And no, shotguns are too clunky.

    And apart from that obvious reply (d'oh!): common sense. I just passed on a 4-plex as the numbers simply didn't work. Although they barely ever hit the market it was. too. expensive, considering the market (rent) and even comps. But I'm sure it will be sold for list price as some "poor" chap is desperately trying to get into the (small) multi-family game no matter what. Possibly with an FHA loan... :-o

    I'll be standing by to pick it up when it defaults in some two-ish years or so. With a 20-30% discount at that point. Thank you very much. Until then I collect my monthly rent checks and somewhat comfortably bed my financial buttocks on 30+% equity. Sometimes a little more, sometimes just a tad bit less.

    All in all: I pretty much agree with you. Although I'm not sure that the repeal (in parts?) of D-F will make that big of a difference. Banks, as a business, have been burnt during the crisis. At this point I still think they remember that, not to mention their shareholders. Looking forward, another 10 years or so, not so sure...

  • Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2015 · 208 posts · 282 votes
    9y

    I wonder if baseball bats would work on the zombies..or maybe we should just save them for the lenders that make you overpay for appraisals,then proceed to lead you on all the way,only to "decline" your application for some random reason just when you're in clear view of the underwriter....:-)

  • Investor · Takoma Park, MD · Member since 2016 · 166 posts · 147 votes
    9y

    Equity, healthy reserves to cover the unexpected, some cash to take advantage of unexpected and outstanding opportunities, and perhaps as important as these things, a steady hand and a healthy longer-term perspective. Those who bought in 2010-2012 are now sitting on some great gains as prices have bounced back and then some in many markets. Those who bought in 2007 and didn't freak out and panic are also doing fine. Are they killing it?  Maybe, maybe not. But they are doing fine. Most of us know people who sold for a loss because they were underwater in 2009-2013. Gone was their downpayment and any equity they had built. Gone was their credit rating if they had to declare bankruptcy. The crazy thing is that many of them sold even though they were covering their payments without difficulty. It was just the thought of being underwater that caused them to panic and sell. 

    When the zombie apocalypse does come, keep a cool head and keep the longer term view of things firmly in mind. When that place you are watching drops 20%, it might be a good time to pick it up. Could it go lower?  Sure. Maybe. But will it come back? Yes. Unless it is in a place you shouldn't be investing to begin with, it will come back and it will continue to appreciate. There is more and more discussion here of how expensive some markets and asset classes are becoming. To me, that says it is time to start keeping the money in the mattress instead of overpaying. Remember, you make money when you buy, but only if you buy smart.

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