The Real Estate Cycle

[Michael Haynes]

Hello BP, I am new to this site and I see that a lot of people are eager to get started with buying properties for all kinds of reasons. There seems to be a lot of interest in Tampa for rentals. I consider Tampa to be the ugly duckling of the towns around Tampa Bay because it was founded on industry and the port and not the tourist trade with the beaches. We have a sometimes resident in Tampa who has a very different way of predicting, many years in advance, the Real Estate and Economic Cycles based on Age Related Spending Cycles. See if you can open this link to a recent article that gives some of our recent RE History here in Florida 

https://outlook.live.com/owa/?path=/mail/inbox/rp

One of the articles I saw in this weeks BP podcast was the question of whether the Millennials can save the RE Market and they cannot according to Harry Dent's studies. The Arabs have a saying, that their great grandfather rode a camel. Their grandfather rode a car. Their father flys in a jet and the son will end up riding a camel...The Wave or Cycle of Technology gave us a temendous boost up to a peak that is now over. The X and Y and Millennials will not have a better life with more opportunities then their parents. They graduate from the Universities with BS degrees and not JOB's with which to save money for a down payment on a home. The Fed keeps interest rates as low as possible in an effort to force people with money to put the money to work with businesses and building. But, the generations after the Baby Boomers don't have any money to buy homes with. It was suggested today that these low interest rates will last for ten to twenty years as the economy bumps along like Japan has done. The Fed is now even thinking about Negative interest rates where you have to pay the bank to keep your money. Would that make you think that buying RE or building a home or making a new business would be a better way to save your principal? Anyway, these are not the go go years ahead. Good luck.