Is the 2% Rule still alive in the central Pennsylvania market?

[Cory Iannacone]

When I closed on my first duplex in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania in August 2017, "the 2% Rule" was the gold standard for determining whether a property would cash flow.  (The 2% Rule says that the gross monthly rents should be 2% of the purchase price.) I purchased that duplex for $116,000 and had the gross rents at $2,105.00 after re-leasing 1 of the apartments after the sale (roughly 1.8% of sale price, so just shy of the 2% Rule).  Today, the gross rents are $2,875 (exceeding the 2% Rule). In 2017, I thought I did just "okay" on this deal.  Today, however, this deal would be a slam dunk in this market, as I am finding it harder (if not impossible) to find 2% deals in central Pennsylvania.  In fact, since the pandemic and inflation hit, the 2% Rule seems to have all but disappeared in all real estate discussions and been replaced with the “1% Rule” in this tighter market. 

I recently purchased this 10 unit building in Harrisburg, PA.  It is a 100 year old purpose built apartment building which was considered high end in the early 1900s, with butlers' quarters in the basement of the building, and each apartment boasting 1400 sq ft / 2 beds / 1.5 baths and maids' quarters in the back.  I purchased it for $1.1M with each apartment renting around $1,000 ($10,000 gross monthly rents), so just under 1% of the $1.1M purchase price.  We have been renovating each apartment 1 by 1 as tenants move out and renting the apartments for $1,800 ($18,000 projected gross monthly income).  That would put us just above 1.6% of the $1.1M purchase price, so still short of the 2% Rule (and it still doesn’t account for the renovation costs).

All of this begs my question: Is the 2% Rule still alive in the central Pennsylvania market in 2024?  If so, can anyone in this market give me any examples of recent deals they have been involved in which hit the 2% Rule?