Will housing crash in 2026 or has it already crashed? Expert called last two crashes.

[Jack B.]

This guy called the last two crashes, says there will be one in 2026 too. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-12...

But we have the lowest demand since the 90's, even lower than the 2008 crash. Prices in Seattle dropped 20% since rates went up. Did we already see a crash in 2022 and start a new 18 year cycle?

[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Jack B.:

This guy called the last two crashes, says there will be one in 2026 too. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-12...

But we have the lowest demand since the 90's, even lower than the 2008 crash. Prices in Seattle dropped 20% since rates went up. Did we already see a crash in 2022 and start a new 18 year cycle?

 No one can predict if we will have a crash because there are too many macroeconomic issues.

If the government keeps printing trillions a year then yeah we will not have a crash.

Let me tell you what I am seeing and people can make their own assumptions:

1. Asset based lenders / lender to lender financing (those who provide financing to companies for equipment, operations, etc. They will not touch real estate. They have stopped lending to real estate or even lenders who lend on real estate)

2. Commercial is worse than what the media is telling you. This includes self storage and multifamily. People do not understand how impactful commercial is on the banks. This is a big big deal.

3. A large percentage of small businesses are defaulting on rents and their loans.

4. The job market is seeing multiple applicants per opening. Why? because the only jobs that were hired in last six months were auto unions back to work, government workers and healthcare workers. Other sectors are shedding jobs. 

5. Incomes are not keeping up with the cost of housing. It is down from 38% to 32% but its still abnormally high.

6. In order to calm inflation, housing needs to soften as it comprises 30%+. So if housing stays strong, so does inflation and rates will remain higher. Fed will not cut rates if the economy is still "steaming along". Eventually the inflation and high rates is going to have ramifications.

Note this is not in every location nationwide, as some pockets are more resistant and some are less resistant.