Am I Analyzing Deals Correctly?

[Benjamin Sulka]

Fellow investors, 

I have a deal analysis question. 

My plan is to house hack and I'm having trouble getting numbers to  cash flow AFTER I move out. It's almost impossible to get a property to cash flow while you live there but I'm also having trouble seeing cashflow after my departure. 

Market rent in my area for duplexes is about $1,300. My plan is to go 5% conventional financing. 

Here is an example: 

Home Type: Duplex

Purchase Price: $200,000 (in my area, this would be purchasing a property at a pretty decent discount. My plan is to walk for dollars and call potential distressed landlords)

Loan Amount: $190,000

Loan Details: 7% interest rate amortized over 30 years 

INCOME

Rent: $2,600 (assuming both units rent for $1,300) 

Total Income: $2,600

EXPENSES

Monthly P&I: $1,264

PMI: $158 (1% of loan amount)

Homeowners insurance: $100 (estimate for my area) 

Vacancy:  $130 (5% of rent) 

Capex: $260 (5% of rent)

Taxes:  $450 (monthly estimate for my area) 

Total Expenses: $2,362 

Total Income - Total Expenses = $2,600 - $2,362 = $238 

This is excluding future property management, potential lawn care, snowcare, utilities that I'd have to pay etc.

There are some properties that rent for upwards of $1,400 in my area but all have extra features like central air. It's highly unlikely that I could purchase a property with central air at a significant enough discount to make the numbers work.

Would love to hear your thoughts.