Is Multifamily Growing or Overheated in Your Area?

[Jason Merchey]

Glenn Mueller, Ph.D. has this on his website, which is http://blackcreekgroup.com . It's called the "Cycle Monitor". This is the same reference to "cycles" that @J Scott has popularized on BP.com.

It shows (though with a time-lag - this is 2018) which areas are growing and which are overheated for multifamily, in which cities. 

We're talking about occupancy, in multifamily. Other aspects of the free report on this site are industrial, commercial, etc.

Phases 6-11 are the expansion phase of the housing market, and 12-16 are when "oversupply" of new housing starts is greatly outpacing the demand, creating "hypersupply". 

Phase 11 means "equilibrium" between occupancy and demand. It never lasts, though. Builders build feverishly when they see a green light, but can't stop building when it turns yellow, and they still bring inventory on-line when the light is red. Such is life in real estate. 

Where are you? And where are *we*?