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Updated almost 6 years ago,
Long term metric/benchmark for buy and holds?
What are some favorite metrics/benchmarks in the long run -- long term buy and holds with fixed loans and no mid range thoughts of selling , re-financing etc.?
For example... I have my 64 multi-fam units in Cincinnati from a 1031 exchange about a year ago. When I went into there was a cap rate/ROI that I hoped to achieve relative to the equity in the purchases. For fun, I can also keep an eye on cap rates as they relate to present day investments in that market and asset class for comparison. Cap rate has been a quick way to take the temperature on my ROI of the my funds in the purchase and it's return as an investment, without clouding it with all the other moving parts.
At the same time, cash-on-cash interests me less, as mine isn't particularly impressive. Other investors end up with large cash-on-cash numbers. Mine isn't any kind of monster, as we opted to lock into long term fixed loans and I didn't leverage that heavily. The mindset on that (aside from the challenges finding the right deals with the clock ticking on the 45 day 1031 period) was that a long term buy and hold and moderate leverage would meet most of our cash flow goals without going too risky with too little time to do it carefully -- and with the limited deals available to us at that exact moment.
I also prefer to sideline the consideration of upside from loan pay-down and appreciation on the properties. Mostly since I can't spend that right now.
Since it was only a little over a year ago, my equity's original cap rate probably isn't a whole lot different than what it would be now. The data on cap rates in my investing area are moving around but last year's and now are in the same league.
So that seems like good back of the napkin analysis for me now. And since the borrowed money is fixed, and assuming healthy and stable occupancy is possible, the cash flow performance can mostly be influenced only by raising rents ahead of rising operating costs over the years.
So... Since for others there are lot of moving parts and the tendency for investors to cash-out refi, trade up, etc., what metrics are others using besides original cap rates and return expectations to shortcut to a performance point over many years, when all the other metrics are floating around. Is it always relative to the original deal with adjustments for re-fi's and such, or is there another approach to this?