Trump Presidency: What impact on McAllen, TX & other Border Towns - Rio Grande Valley

[Arkadiy Iliyayev]

I am in the middle of closing on a mid-sized apartment deal in Mcallen, Texas. Now that Trump won the election, I wanted to get a discussion going about what potential impact this could have on towns along the Rio Grande Valley like McAllen, and Brownsville, Texas.

The population growth in these towns has been great over the years making it a worthwhile investment. However, given that Trump is very big on "sealing" the border, could it impact the steady population growth these towns are having. This would then negatively impact multifamily and residential housing values?  

 I've heard two sides of the argument:
  
1. There will be decreased population growth because fewer people will be able to come across the border, negatively impacting rent prices, increasing vacancy etc.  

2. There will be much more government spending and jobs created in Mcallen to secure the border, leading to continued population growth. As part of this point I was told, while Trump was president for 4 years in his last term the area just continued experiencing steady population growth despite the fact that he made efforts to secure the border. 

I understand nobody has a crystal ball, but any feedback would be greatly appreciated. 

[Arkadiy Iliyayev]

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[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Arkadiy Iliyayev:

Bump

 Nobody knows and getting into a political discussion on NP does not end well especially as it relates to immigration. 

[Arkadiy Iliyayev]

This is by no means meant to be a political discussion. I also dont think people are so sensitive that they cant have a legitimate conversation about how new border plans can effect real estate investments along the border. 

[Robert Rixer]

There are too many variables to get any kind of meaningful prediction. Positive and negative forces will cancel each other out to some extent. My opinion is that the overall direct effect of immigration policy on any given market will pale in comparison to other factors such as the economy, inflation and deregulation. 

These are all outside of your control. If you buy in at a good cost basis with solid fundamentals, you're going to come out ahead in the long term.