Which is safer for long distance apt ownership

[John Public]

Hey guys, I'm about to enter a partnership with a group of investors to purchase a 100+ unit apartment building. We haven't yet finalized what property we want to buy (were still in the finding a deal stage), but I want to know how much vacancy rates can be affected long term by conditions that are completely outside the control of the investor.

I guess what I am asking is this:
Can an investor do everything right in a B or C class neighborhood in a moderately growing market and expect occupancy rates to stay at or above 90% for many years. Or do properties that large generally have inevitable periods where they dip below the 90% occupancy mark, or some other unfortunate thing befall them, due to things completely outside the investors control, like massive job cuts, shifting economies, the neighborhood slowly declining, etc... (or anything else I can't think of)? Despite having a good management co (or resident manager) well kept property, low expense ratio (45% of GSI or less), etc...

The reason I ask this is because I am ultimately trying to decide which is safer for the commercial RE newbie entering the game.
Is it safer to buy a property at a lower cap (8 - 10 cap) that is already high occupancy, no differed maintenance, expenses at or below 45%, good management in place, all the niceties, etc... Or is it better to buy a rundown, high expense, lower than 85% occupancy, differed maintenance, etc... at a higher cap (12 - 14 cap) from a desperate Californian who got in not knowing what he was getting into (yeah yeah, I know their not all from Cali, sorry... it just seems like a large portion of burnout landlords of this type are). And try to turn this property around.

Thanks in advanced for your experienced answers.