Lease Up Projections for a Self-Storage Rehab

[Luke Soasey]

I'm looking at a potential self-storage deal which I could use some assistance with. The quick summary is that it a facility that was effectively abandoned 5-7 years ago due to the death of the owner. I understand that the beneficiaries of the estate didn't want anything to do with operating commercial real estate, so it was just left to fail. It's a great location, high traffic visibility, high-growth area. The facility was built in the 1980's, cinder block construction, and needs complete rehab...  Unit count in the low 300s. I'm comfortable with putting together estimates for the rehab, at least for the up-front financial analysis prior to getting real bids from contractors.

What I'm less equipped to do is project the lease up story based on supply, demand, and other factors relevant to the area. (To be transparent, my background is in SFRs and residential rehabs in a different geography -- not self storage.) I believe this is critical to the overall business plan and financing strategy for getting this facility back up and running. I am reaching out in this forum to ask for specific help for how to analyze the market and build out a realistic lease up projection based once a facility rehab is complete. BTW... I haven't submitted a LOI yet. I realize that a full feasibility study will most likely be required if I move forward with an LOI and purchase contract. At this point I need assistance and advice for the up-front (call it "back of the napkin") assessment to determine if it's worth moving forward on. Would anyone be willing to talk about this with me?