Impact of Covid in 2020 was not what we thought. How about 2021?

[Kevin Lefeuvre]

Back in Feb 2020, most of us thought (per this popular ) that the markets would be more or less severely impacted if the Pandemic persists.

Commercial RE suffered immediately for everything Office and some related, while storage type properties or mixed usage stayed strong.

The divide was not only in the politics but also in the economy. Some businesses like Tech values sky rocketed while some others such as in retail or hospitality became weaker if not bankrupt.

However for the residential real estate, except for some niche markets, the general trend was a strong, sellers market across the country with high demand and short inventory pushing prices up even during traditionally seasonal down periods which used to be the October-December. Most of us thought it would take about 6 to 12 months before the crisis impact the real estate, but it did not happen. In fact the WFH created more need for space in homes creating more demand. Although in the long run the middle class is squeezed, in the short term, they seem to have saved enough money because there is nowhere they can spend it. And of course the mortgage forbearance and eviction moratoriums were also quickly introduced by governors.

But how will the end of the mortgage forbearance and eviction moratoriums impact the real estate? Did these 2 tools just postpone the problem from 2020 to 2021? Who knows if they will be extended or not? Who knows if we'll keep printing money and artificially keep the markets alive?

So what are your thoughts? How do you think the Residential RE market will evolve in 2021 ?