12-18 mounths till rock bottom prices?

[Oren Kachel]

well educated and experienced people in the indusrty saying that the house prices will decrease untill they will hit the bottom , and it will be mounths from now.

im an out of the counrty investor so my the understanding of the nuances of the U.S. economy is limited.

if we are at the peak of the pandemic right now, or were going to be in about ... a week, and after that we will begin to go back to normall slowly, why we are going to see the bottom in a year from now? a  year from now we will have a lower  unempoyment rate that in April/May , home buyers who froze the buying process in March and april will storm the market, maybe not in May/June, but after that.

I know in 2008 it took the market few years to hit bottom, but this its different

[Nathan Gesner]

Well educated and experienced people told us 2 million people would die from coronavirus. Well educated and experienced people tell us what to expect with the weather this week, this month, and this year and there's at least a 50% chance they'll be wrong the majority of the time.

Nobody knows what will happen. In my personal opinion, any time the government starts throwing out large amounts of money, it has a negative long-term impact on the country. There are an estimated 30 million small businesses and an estimated 50% of them are shut down. If just half of them failed to open back up, that would be over 7,000,000 closed businesses, empty commercial buildings, tens of millions unemployed, etc. Other businesses are learning they don't need a 6,000 sq.ft. commercial office when their employees could work from home, which may create another major hit on commercial space. Like the Great Depression, people may become frugal and hold onto their cash which means less money in the market. Maybe we spend a ton of cash to recover this summer and then get hit with COVID again in the fall.

It's anybody's guess. My guess is that we'll see the real recession in 1-2 years when we start paying the Piper for our reckless spending in this recovery.