Finding a market to invest

[Jason Appel]

Hi,

I recently got the Real Estate bug and would like to begin investing in real estate. I joined BiggerPockets.com in order to reach more newbies like me, as well as experienced investors who I am eager to learn from and form partnerships with.

 One question that I've always wondered is how to find the right market to invest in?

I know as a starter, it may be best to invest closer to your home to be more active in the management.

however, if I'd like to buy in an outside market, what indicators and research should I be looking for in order to determine if the market is one I should pursue or stay away from?

Thank you very much

[Art Perkitny]

@Jason Appel

In todays world, investors can benefit greatly from the plethora of demographic and economic data available to them. 

Below you will find a list of datasets, that I've found in my research, which will provide you with a number of key performance indicators (KPIs) that you can use to evaluate markets at all levels. 

Census Bureau: American Community Survey (ACS)

The ACS was launched in 2005 and is administered every year by the Census Bureau to roughly three and a half million households in the USA. This dataset contains over 18,000 data points, which are tabulated at the state, MSA, county, city, zip, and block level.  

This survey contains hundreds of KPIs that investors should use when searching for new markets to invest into. Here is a list of a few that I find to be of most value:

• Population Total
• Home Values
• Household Incomes
  Poverty Rate
• Population Age
• Rental Vacancy Rate*
  Homeowner Vacancy Rate*
  Educational Attainment Rate (High School/GED & Bachelors)
  Number of Housing Unit
  Rent to Income Ratio*
  Rent to Price Ratio*
  Population on SNAPS (supplemental nutrition assistance program) percentage
  Property Tax Rate*
  Median Age of Buildings
  Number of Structures by Units (SFR, Duplex, Triplex, Quadplex, etc...)
  Median Rents by Number of Bedrooms
  
• Population Change (Births, Deaths, In-Migrations, Immigrants)  

*note that some of the metrics are composites that are computed by comparing two or more variables from the ACS

A number of the variables above can also be broken up into cohorts, which will give you even more insight into how an area is doing. For example, an area may show a low median income, however when looking at the cohorts, it may show a bimodal distribution of income at both the lower and higher end. This could be an indicator of an area that is going thought the early stages of gentrification. 

I'd also encourage you to look at the deltas, or change, for some of the indicators mentioned above. This will better help you get an understanding of not just where market is today, but also where it may be heading. You wouldn't want to buy into an area that is declining rapidly where the tenant quality is decreasing along with the area. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces detailed industry estimates of employment, hours, and earnings of workers on payrolls every month. CES National Estimates produces data for the nation, and CES State and Metro Area produces estimates for all 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and about 450 metropolitan areas and divisions. Each month, CES surveys approximately 142,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 689,000 individual worksites.

The CES is the gold standard when it comes to analyzing the job growth of a market. As an investor you will want to look at the number of jobs add/removed within a market. In addition to this figure, the CES provides more granular data for jobs tabulated using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). This system allows you to get a very detailed picture of how the local job market is composed. You will want to avoid markets where a single industry dominates the local economy in the number of jobs since these kinds of markets a incredibly susceptible to swings in the market. 

Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey (BPS)

The purpose of the Building Permits Survey (BPS) is to provide national, state, and local statistics on the number and valuation of new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in the United States. The Building Permits Survey covers all "permit-issuing places," which are jurisdictions that issue building or zoning permits. About half of the permit-issuing places in the United States are surveyed monthly. The remainder of places are surveyed annually.

Using data from the BPS, investors can get an idea of the supply and demand dynamics within their market. Coupled with migration data from the ACS, this can be a very powerful dataset to use when attempting to predict future housing prices, vacancy, and absorption rates. 

Federal Bureau of Investigation: Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR)

The Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program compiles official data on crime in the United States, published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). UCR is a nationwide, cooperative statistical effort of nearly 18,000 city, university and college, county, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies voluntarily reporting data on crimes brought to their attention. UCR data is published annually by the FBI.

UCR data is reported as either violent or property crime, which then break down further into eight possible sub-crime categories. Investors will want to ensure that the areas they are investing into have low rates of crime, or are at the very least improving over time. 

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA)

The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) requires many financial institutions to maintain, report, and publicly disclose loan-level information about mortgages. HMDA data is the most comprehensive source of publicly available information on the U.S. mortgage market. HMDA data is released annually. 

Investors can look at the types of loans being given, weather the property is used a primary residence or investment, and the demographic information of the borrower. It's possible to also tabulate the data by the type of property (residential or commercial). This data is tabulated at the census tract level, which allows for a tremendous about of granularity when conducting market research. Investors should use this data to identify areas where other investors are buying as well as to get a better understanding of the demographics of buyers in the area. 

Census Bureau: Decennial Census

This is the census that most of us are familiar with. It has been administered to all households in the country every decade since 1970. 

Investors should use this data set when more granularity is desired than what the ACS offers. However, one should be leery of the data once a few years have passed since the census was taken since demographics can change rather quickly in small areas. 

Honorable Mentions:

The datasets below are ones that I have come across in my research, but have not yet had the chance to fully go through. Nonetheless, they will likely provide investors with even more actionable data. 

• Internal Revenue Service: Statistics of Income Migration Data (SoI Migration)
• Census Bureau: Value of Construction Put in Place Survey (VIP)
• Census Bureau: Current Population Survey - (CPS)
• Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD): Survey of Construction (SoC)
• Census Bureau: Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units (SOMA)

Remember that real estate is hyperlocal and it's important not only to find a market that posses mostly positive indicators but also a sub-market that has the same positive characteristics. Locations with poor indicators will attract poor tenants and the quality of the tenant base is often more important than property you select itself. 

I think it's more important than ever for investors to look at the data as we reach the end of the longest bull market in US history. Investors that allocate into places with good market indicators will fare much better in the looming recession and will  avoid making an extremely costly mistake. 

By looking at the data you will be leaps and bounds ahead of the competition. 

Let me know if you have any other questions, hope this helps!