Arizona Economic & Real Estate Analysis

[Jared Smith]

Couple quick points and then some feedback from the AZ Economic and Real Estate Analysis.

This is a look into the “fear based mentality” that some of my peers are operating from:

A startling survey result stated “that 58% mortgage/loan originators think or feel there is mgoing to be a housing crash in the next 2 years and are fueling the public perception of housing market”; yet, there are “zero” economic or statistical indicators pointing us in that direction.

We have to rise above and consistently combat misinformation and sometimes “disinformation”, which is deliberately spread to influence someone’s opinion or decision.

Overview of Single Family Housing

• Current conditions in the single family market are the polar opposite of 2007-2011

• No signs of oversupply of housing

• Signs of strong pent-up purchase demand- also PHX-Mesa-Scottsdale area is consistent top 5 for job and population growth

• With rising interest rates, affordability does become more of an issue BUT housing in AZ remains very affordable…

(a 1% rise in rates lowers buyer housing affordability by 7%-a $275K purchase lowers to $256K)

• While the housing market will be under pressure over the near term, the outlook over the next 5 years is excellent

If you have any questions on the Arizona Market - Please reach out!

-Jared