At what price is this a good deal?

Question

Hi everyone,

I am practicing running numbers on buy and hold investments and would like your help.

Here is a duplex (two 2 bed 1 bath units) in Princeton Junction, NJ.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/NJ/pmf,pf_pt...

Rentometer shows that a 2 bedroom unit in that area rents for an average of $1,873 per month.

Zillow shows property tax of $12,391 per year.

My question is at what purchase price would this generally be considered as a good deal?

I am more concerned with cash flow and ROI than I am with appreciation.

Using my assumptions, the property would have to be purchased for $263,803 to give a cash ROI of 10%, cap rate of 7.59%, and a cash flow per door of $283.49. Is this too conservative?

Ned Carey · Answer

@Matthew H.

This is where knowing your market comes into play. Knowing the formulas is only half of the deal. You need to know what numbers to pug in the formulas. That comes from knowing what actual rents are, Knowing haw much repairs are and knowing what level to renovate to.  This is why it is key to look at and evaluate as many deals as you can.

Hopefully someone from you area can give more specific advice.

Allan Smith · Answer

something seems off about those numbers. With outrageous taxes like that, I dont know how you would end up with $250 per month in cash flow. Dont forget 8% vacancy, capex, maintenance, insurance, and possibly mgmt. If cash flow is important I'd be a lot closer to $150k on that one.

Matthew H. · Answer

Thanks for the reply Michael.

I am planning on buying a property that I can live in and rent out the rest (a "house hack"). I want to purchase it as a rental so that I have the option of moving out and having a good cash flowing rental to add to my portfolio.

Right now, I am really only concerned with running the numbers as if I wasn't living there.

It's helpful to see what you are looking for in a purchase (coc return of ≥ 12%). Does ARV really matter to someone who is not planning on flipping or pulling their money out to use elsewhere?

Matthew H. · Answer

Understood. You can see my assumptions from the post 2 above this one.

This is more so that I am able to tell when a good deal actually comes up.

Thanks for taking a look!

Matthew H. · Answer

Thanks Ned. I am learning on how to properly run the numbers.

To me, the asking price is irrelevant. I am looking to find what the purchase price would have to be based on a good (enough) cash flow and cash ROI.

If I input $375,000 as the purchase price, while keeping all other assumptions the same, I get a monthly cash flow of $51.49 per door with a cash ROI of 1%. This doesn't look good (cash flow of ≥ 100 per door and ROI ≥ 10%) which is why I am wondering if my assumptions are too conservative.

Matthew H. · Answer

It would be great for someone to double check my math and assumptions. I solved for purchase price based on getting a cash ROI of 10%.

The assumptions that I used to get a cash flow of $283.49 per door were as follows:

Purchase Price: $263,803 (the variable that I would like to solve for)

Down Payment: 20% ($52,761)

Immediate Improvements/Rehab: $10,000

Closing Costs: 2% of purchase price ($5,276)

Finance Amt: $211,042

Interest Rate: 4.749%

Mortgage Years: 30

Mortgage Payment (Just P&I): $1,101

Property Tax: $12,391/year

HO Insurance: $960/year

Utilities: $2,100/year

Maintenance & Repairs: $2,000/year

Vacancy: 5% of rental income

Property Management: 6% of income

CapEx: $2,544/year

My calculations then left me with a NOI of $20,013, Cap Rate of 7.59%, Cash Flow of $6,804, and Cash ROI of 10%.

Michael Lee · Answer

You need to realize it will ttake 25 or 30 units to maybe pay all your bills unless you just are looking for supplemental investment.  To here are many factors consider but I would want ARV on x .70 as well as your C on C return of at least 12 percent and a positive cash flow.

Karen O. · Answer

It's a beauty.

Your numbers seem about right if you've accounted for closing costs, vacancies, maintenance, capex, pm and financing.

There may be other costs like heat if they aren't separate & lawn care/plowing which could eat into your cf.  And a 150 yo house tends to need more care unless it's already been updated.

And of course all of that is moot if the seller is unlikely to sell for $150k+ less than asking.

Ned Carey · Answer

@Matthew H. At the asking price I don't think it is close to a deal. With expected rent for both units at $3,746,  it starts to make sense at $375K which is the 1% rule.  Of course you should use actual numbers for you final analysis.