Will people leave the Houston area? Where will they go?

[Kevin Wiley]

I've seen all of the photos of Houston and of course I feel very badly for the people there. I have never been in a situation as bad as that and can only imagine the emotional and financial toll its taking on them...

That being said, I am still an investor. It's no secret that hundreds of thousands of people have flocked to Houston and its been lauded as one of the best real estate markets in the country. Of course, Texas is always a very strong market.

Does anyone have any data describing population migration after a large natural disaster? Like, after Katrina hit New Orleans, those thousands of people moved away. Is there any data to support or suggest where people tend to move and start a new life after a disaster? Of course once this is over, a large number of people will continue to stay in Houston and rebuild their town and their lives. God bless them. But still many people will be leaving the city, possibly further north out of (reasonable) fear.

Does anyone have any opinions of markets that were previously slow that may become bigger and more significant to invest in? When Katrina happened in 2005, over 135k homes were destroyed and over 250k people moved away from that city. Even still, the population is only 80% of what it was in 2000. Many of these people will likely move to live in apartments while they pick themselves back up and purchase a new home.

I really hate asking this question at the risk of sounding heartless, but its been on my mind for a couple of days now. I can't stress enough how badly I feel for the displaced families over there.

Thank you,

[Brian Foster]

I enjoy reading the reports that are sent out by the Greater Houston Partnership. They are factual and they don't try to sugarcoat bad news. Here are some excerpts from the report on Harvey:

And many of the data points [about Hurricane Harvey] that have been presented as fact are misleading or just plain wrong. Case in point, one report had Harvey inundating more than 100,000 apartment units. Yet Texas Department of Public Safety reports that fewer than 2,200 units were damaged or destroyed. The first number represents 15.7 percent of inventory and suggests devastation. The second number represents 0.3 percent and suggests pockets of damage.

• The pillars of Houston’s economic base—upstream energy, the Houston Ship Channel, chemicals and refining, health care, corporate headquarters, and aerospace—emerged largely unscathed.
• Of the 89,400 office, industrial, multi-family and retail properties that Xceligent tracks in Houston, only 7,155 were in Harvey-affected areas.
• The institutions in the Texas Medical Center learned from Tropical Storm Allison years ago and moved critical systems out of their basements. Though flooding occurred in neighborhoods around TMC, the hospitals by and large remained open.
• Reports filed with TxDPS indicate that Harvey damaged or destroyed 72,000 single-family homes in metro Houston, or about five percent of the Houston region’s 1.5 million single-family homes. The official reports fall well below the 150,000 to 200,000 originally reported.
• The Partnership's analysis of FEMA data shows that 83 percent of Houston's single- and multi-family homes lack flood insurance. The University of California-Davis found that half of the area flooded in Harris County occurred outside of the 100-year and 500-year floodplains. The financial analytics firm CoreLogic estimates that only $6.5-$9.5 billion of the $25-$37 billion in residential damages will be covered by insurance.
• Harvey will have no lasting impact on long-term population or economic growth. As noted earlier, the engines of Houston’s economy—energy, chemicals, trade, corporate operations—emerged from Harvey intact. Economic growth drives employment growth and employment growth drives population. If Houston’ long-term growth slows, it won’t be due to any impact associated with Hurricane Harvey.

Also noteworthy IMHO, the # of rigs operating in NA is twice what it was a year a go, Oil and Gas coming back