Will rehab costs derail this deal? (First time buyer & poster)

[Suzanne Atkinson]

I need slightly urgent advice.

I placed an offer on a house last week, and now I've had the inspector in as well as one of several contractors to get estimate for needed stuff.

I got a great price on the offer I think, the inspector is also a structural engineer and he said he thought it was a great investment property.

Issues include:
-mold
-basement moisture
-main roof OK, but some patches needed
-front porch roof & detached garage need replacing
-boiler bearning bad
-radon (4.6)

That's all before interior fixes like plaster (from all the roof leaks), new carpets and interior painting.

This is my first deal, and while I'm not afraid of all the work involved, The estimates are getting close to my bottom line number.

I'm starting to get nervous that the rehab costs will make this unworkable...and I really want it to work.

I have been an excel spreadsheet (Property Analysis Buy & Hold) and have plugged in a LOT of numbers, including a rehab number up to 40,000...and the property still gives me a 5% Cash on Cash return, which isn't bad, and a cash flow of anywhere from $100/month for lowball rents to up to $1000+ cash flow for top number rents inline with the area for a nice place.

The advice I'm looking for is how to figure my bottom line offer. I have until next wednesday to crunch numbers and get estimates. Is there a calculator I can use to do a reverse calc? Minimum COC & Cash flow to determine my bottom line offer?

I'm using those 2 numbers (CoC & Cash flow) b/c they seem immediately applicable to me. Should I be looking at other metrics right now too? My goals are 1) get in the game, 2) get a conservative market return on my cash, since right now it's cash in a money market 3) small positive cash flow to make me feel good about myself, and ultimately contribute to a meaningful monthly income from rentals.

If I do all this, I'll be spending about 1/3-1/2 of my available cash on this house using worst case scenario which means I can only do 1 more deal in the near future without creative financing or working a bunch more shifts.

My cash on cash and ROI only go up with any rehab less than $40,000...which to me sounds like a huge number but between roof & foundation/waterproofing we are potentially half-way there.

I'm happy to share specifics if anyone wants but wondering what advice, if any, you may have?

one concern is if I kick out the current renters to renovate, how long they may be vacant since this is a slower time of year to get people in.

OK, I"m ready for your input!