Housing Bubble Chat

[Cary F.]

I'm curious to hear what people have to say. As an economist/risk professional in the banking space, I feel that I have decent insight into the industry. 

Those of you warning of a housing bubble...  I just don't see it.

• There's a large shortage in the housing market as housing starts are at HALF the rate of what they were pre-bubble  (950,000 per year vs 2,000,000 per year)
• HELOCs from 2006-2007 show pressure, but equity increases in a good market are allowing home owners to refi second mortgages
• Rates will remain low for the foreseeable future
• Low rates and climbing prices create incentive to enter the housing market
• Bank regulations are preventing the reckless lending practices that were driving the last housing bubble

I say we have at least 5 more years or nice appreciation and low rates. 

What do others in the community think? Thanks! 

-Cary