Analyzing a Deal

[Jessica Ketchum]

A little background, hopefully not too much (and sorry if I bounce around a bit)....Two months ago I picked up a book on real estate, which quickly lead to BP podcasts, website, and more books (I love J.Scott's books).   The approach I've decided on is direct mail marketing, cluster mail 4-6 times every 3 weeks, specific lists (via Micheal Quarles advice), etc.

BP had a podcast that laid out 22 Action Items for investors and one suggestion was to visit the local foreclosure courthouse, which I did last Monday.  There I got to see the process and also met an investor who explained what was happening with each property, whether he thought the people bidding were bidding too high, his MPP for specific ones he was interested in, etc.

So, we got to talking afterwards and he mentioned he does fix and flips, wholesales and that one of two properties he won bids on (I watched him) I might be interested in.   I offered to buy him lunch last Thursday and this is the deal he's offering:  

He purchased an end unit condo, 3 bedroom/2.5 bath, 1912 sf., built in 2006 for $116, 700 and would assign for $6K.

Comps (from me looking on Realtor.com/properties on same street SOLD in last 6 months): More than 3 comps with price ranges $150-156K.  Subject property would be nicer (IF FIXED UP) than all 3 due to it being an end unit and 100 more sf than all comps on street. 

I have NOT seen inside the property and am so new I don't know if he expects to assign this without someone seeing the inside.  

MY REASON FOR THE POST: 

Numbers so far: 154K (Conservative ARV)

-122,700 (116,700 + 6K assignment fee)

-3,900 (Selling Closing costs)

-7,700 (Commissions)

-2,300 (Inspection, utilities, taxes, home warrenty, etc.)

-12,000 (Rehab)

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$5,400 Profit not including all labor I will be putting in (up to 40 hours a week)

So, the numbers seem to me that it's a for sure NO GO. I'm guessing on the rehab since I haven't seen the inside.  I'm assuming full interior paint, and engineered hardwood downstairs and carpet upstairs (maybe carpet throughout per comps) and perhaps some updates with counters and hardware. Also, unknown time, headache and cost associated with removing tenants.

Is this guy trying to pass on a bad deal?  I saw that his MPP in court was 110K but he was bid up by a newbie, per his words, and wanted it.  Maybe now he's just trying to get rid of?

Since the court process is that you put 5% cash or cashier's check on the spot and in 20 days the full amount, does this mean he will not even see the inside of place before making the full purchase?  I think it does.  So, that means I would take on that risk of the unknown (IF THE NUMBERS WERE BETTER). He must put up the additional 95% soon or lose the 5%.

I have a very close family friend (my partner) that is financially backing me in this new endeavor of 100% head-on becoming an investor.  We are all three meeting today to discuss this deal and really just have my partner meet this guy.  I haven't contacted the investor to relay that the numbers aren't working.  I more am interested in my partner vetting this guy out today.  My partner is much older, more experienced with sniffing out a rat and more cautious.  He has owned his own business for 20 years (unrelated to real estate) and done very well for himself so again, very cautious.  

I'm also hoping the investor will see we are serious and maybe throw out a better deal.

Any advice, things I'm missing, things to ask this investor???

Thank you BP community for your input!!!