What Are The Odds Offering on a Highly Overpriced Property?

[Shawn Torsitano]

Hey everyone, just hoping for some quick input. 

There is a 4 plex, technically 4 townhouses, near where I live, that I'm looking into. It's something I'm considering as an owner-occupied, using my VA loan(max limit of $417,000, for those not familiar). While I haven't officially run comps, it seems to be way overpriced. They are asking about $625,000. I've looked at about 4 multifamily properties sold in the last six months, 3 were duplexes and 1 was a quad, and they all had GRM's around 10. The quad was actually around 9. At 10, the property would be around $460,000, at 9, it would be around $415,000.

In addition, the single family homes in the area that were similar in size were selling at around $120,000. While I'm no expert, I would bet my car that, in general, a townhouse with no yard is worth less than a similar single family home with a 2 car garage and a small yard.

Some additional information: The property is listed by a company called The Management Group, Inc, under the name of the President of the company. The company seems to be primarily property management, claiming to manage over 14,000 units over Oregon and Washington.

If I'm right in my preliminary estimates, that the property is overpriced by about $200,000, what are my odds of actually being successful offering such a low amount compared to the asking price? It has only been on the market about 30 days, should I wait?