Market Direction - Up or Down?

[William Jenkins]

I am curious to see everyone individual and geographical take on where their market currently stands, and in what direction it is going.

I am in the St. Louis, MO area. I mostly work in a very niche area of CRE but I also work residential to a certain extent (mainly for my own personal buy and hold portfolio). Here is what I have seen in the residential market, and where I see things going:

2011 & 2012 - The Bottom

2013 & 2014 - Slow build up in the latter half of 2012 into 2013 with things getting to a pretty frenzied pace by the middle of 2014.  Pretty significant value gains with many people jumping back into the market.  Hard to tell if it was like 2006, but many seemed to be throwing fundamentals into the wind just to "get yield."  There was also a strong hedge fund buying presence.   

2015 - Market seems like it has been slowly rolling over since late 2014.  There is still low inventory, but buying activity seems to have cooled significantly.  Many properties seem to be hitting the market overpriced, and are now suffering regular price reductions.  The largest hedge fund(s) in the area have put all buying on hold. 

2015 & Beyond - I think we will see lower prices in this market in 2015

What does your market look like?