How to decide whether to 1031 or just buy more...

[Kimberly T.]

Background info: We currently own our house and a triplex in CA and 2 fourplexes in AZ, and we have some money saved up. We would like to get into the 5+ unit realm of investing, in another state. We plan to move out of CA in the next 2 to 6 years, and do not plan to keep our house and triplex here after we leave. We have enough cash saved up to put at least 20% - 30% down on a 5+ unit building, but not enough to pay cash for the whole thing.

Options:

1) Put a down payment on a 5+ unit property and finance the rest with a commercial loan, and worry about selling our CA triplex later (still likely to have pretty good appreciation while we're still here compared to other states, we think...).

2) 1031 our CA triplex, in combination with some of our cash, to buy one (or several) other property(ies) in another state(s). Possibly lose out on better appreciation while we're still here in CA, but likely get a better ROI as far as cash on cash return.

3) Refi our triplex and/or house to pull some cash out (we bought near the bottom a few years ago, so we have some equity) so we have enough to pay cash for a 5+ unit property. We can then finance the 5+ unit property later if we decide to do that (for leverage, to invest in other properties, etc.).

4) ...? Probably other option(s) I haven't thought of.

We have been in the acquisition stage so far, so this is the first time we've had to decide which way to proceed with putting a deal together. How do others analyze what's the best way to proceed? How do you compare those kinds of options, considering you can only estimate/guess things like appreciation? Just looking for some general feedback on how to analyze this.

Thanks!