Value of planted pine in addition to land?

[Russell Holmes]

Hello all, and first of all Happy New Year!

I've got a seller consultation with an owner of a 39-acre hobby farm on Saturday in Paisley, FL, a small rural town about an hour from Orlando and right on the southern border of the Ocala National Forrest. Seems like a lot of Orlando area folks I know have hunting or camping property up there.   The consult won't be super high pressure/competitive since he's the father of a friend of my wife's and I'm the only Realtor he's reached out to. However, I want to give him top notch service and get him the most money possible without giving him false hopes and a long time on market.  He's got a price in mind that I think is in the ballpark based on analysis I've done, but I want to be more solid on a few things.  I've got a good handle on what the property is worth, but am sticking a bit on the value of planted pine.  

Property is 39.0 acres composed of 27.5 acres of dry land (not flood zone) and 11.5 acres of wetland. There's a nice 3/2 manufactured home (permanent wood framed per tax record) and a nice mobile home. Lots of comps for both of those on smaller lots, and manufactured/mobile seem to out number traditional builds in this area being so rural. There's a small pond on the land, but most of the 'wetland' is just due to elevation and it runs in a narrow band diagonally across the nearly square parcel, dipping the most in the center where the pond is, the rest is dry most of the time....just not build-able where zoned wet. Of the 39.0 acres on the county property appraiser, 25.5 acres is zoned timber, 2.0 zoned residential/AG, and 11.5 wetland, an arrangement common in my area for either Timber or Cattle to save property taxes. They typically require one acre per home to be zoned at higher-taxed residential/AG. I haven't been to the property yet, but in talking with his daughter who has communicated with him (he's elderly and she'll be there to be sure we communicate clearly), he has 18-20 acres of planted pine that is 19-20 years old. It appears from the FEMA flood map overlay on satellite image that much of the wetlands is planted with pine, meaning more of the usable/build-able land is clear while still growing pine for profit on all the 'useless' land.

I've found a nearly identical 40.0 acre nearby sold comp for the raw land, down to nearly identical ratio of wet to dry land. Adjusting for the 2.5% difference in total area, it gives me a solid idea of raw land value.   I also found several dry parcels near to the amount of dry he has for further support.  It appears raw land comps in this area between 15-50 acres all hover around $8000/acre for dry land, $500/acre for wetland.  Surprisingly a few of these land parcels have sold in the last 6 months in under 30 days! I've always thought land was slower to sell.  

I've been able to find some good comps for the two homes on site, a permanent manufactured home (per county tax records) and a mobile home, both maintained well and with additional decks/porches etc.  He's also got a 5-7 stall horse barn with tack room and a large tractor/equipment building with A/C office space.  Those structures I plan to discuss their cost to construct new as well as examine their condition to estimate a value.  I figure the value of a utility structure like those is based around its rebuild cost diminished by an amount for age/condition.   

The one area I'm further from confidence on is the planted pine.  From my research into USDA agriculture sites and other forestry guides, it appears that average clear cut harvest yield per acre for 15-20 year old southern planted pine is approximately $1330/acre.  The owner is going to talk to his forestry contact  who has managed the timber and interim thinning to see if he can walk it to give a harvest price.    Even if he solidifies my $1330/acre number or adjusts it, I still don't know if the value of the pine left growing intact on the land is equivalent to the harvest value or some multiple of it.  I could see justification for it being above or below that clear cut harvest value.  Depending on exact acreage of timber, it looks like he's got about $25,000 worth of timber at the estimated price per acre I found.

With so many variables on this land and no exact comps down to the structures, I know that I can only do so much to find market price and the rest will be listening and watching the market reaction, adjusting accordingly.  I plan to talk with him about how some buyers won't see value in the second home being mobile, no matter how nice, while others may keep both as rentals and be more concerned about costs to build their home on the opposite side of the land.  Market price is really only what somebody will pay, but  I just want to nail down as close to a justified value as I can. 

What have some of you experienced in selling land with planted timber that could be harvested immediately for a definite value, but will be sold in growing form?  I know I've read of investors buying land with timber that ends up paying for the land itself to then develop, but I can't recall hearing talk of valuing the timber on sale.  Hopefully some of you have some experience in this field!  Thanks!