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Updated over 3 years ago, 04/14/2021
What would you do if you were me?
Hello BP Mates,
Looking for advice. I have a rental in Phoenix that I owe $210K on and it's estimated to be worth around $400K. It has a brand new AC, water heater, garage door opener, garbage disposal and it has a foam roof that will last another 30+ years as long as it is maintained. I'm renting it to great tenants for $1850 and it is in a great B+ neighborhood in a great central location relative to the entire metro area.
On top of that, I can sell this without capital gains because I lived there and owned it for 2 years out of the last 5 years. I will pay only a year's worth of depreciation recapture. The lease is up April 2022, but speculators are buying vacant homes because appreciation far outpaces the PITI, so I think having a tenant in place is actually a benefit.
My "why" in REI is to subsidize my commission income when I have bad sales months in my 9-5. So immediate cash flow is more important than appreciation, but I also realize a hybrid model is important because of this exact question I'm posing.
I think about the saying "pigs get rich but hogs get slaughtered" and anticipating some market cooling in the near term because of the American Jobs Act, inflation\rising interest rates, tighter lending, ending foreclosure\eviction moratorium, etc.
If you were in my position, would you sell now and capture the 100% in profit and reinvest it into a midwest market small multi-family with better cash flow, or keep it for another 10+ years since it is stable, has new major systems in place, and there is no indication of a major drop in market price any time soon?