Investing during Covid

Investing during Covid

Member since 2019 · 30 posts · 4 votes

I am a relatively new investor with just a few properties under my belt.  I live in Northern CA and have had success investing here, however I am finding that there are much better deals to be had elsewhere and then Covid hit.  My inclination is to be patient and take advantage of the fall out.  Zillow reports that close to 4 million mortgages are in forbearance as of April 2020. 7.3% of all mortgagees can’t pay their mortgage.  Many are trying to Refi, but may not be able to given the current situation.  As we know, this will tighten up lending rules.  I am intensify my home search before this situation worsens.

I have been looking at some of the top investment markets.  I know there are several locations in FL that come up as top areas to invest.  I have concerns about many of the FL and other pan handle areas being hit by weather related calamities, ultimately increasing homeowner insurance costs in these areas.  I would like to know if other people take this into consideration when investing, and if so, how do they align their investment strategy and avoid heavily hit natural disaster areas?

I know that TX, parts of NV and other areas have been heavy in traffic of investment due to high returns.  Are others concerned that cities such as Denver, Dallas, Houston, Las Vegas, Tulsa, Seattle, will have to face their new reality of low oil prices and minimal tourism for 2020?

With all of these considerations do we invest now of be patient?

Do we overlay the map of high return with natural disaster and COVID considerations - and how is this best accomplished?  has anyone done this work?

Best regards to you all  -  I appreciate the valuable insights of this community,

Kristin

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Jonathan GreeneBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Madison, NJ · Member since 2016 · 6k+ posts · 7k+ votes
6y

There are deals out there now in all markets, but I expect the best deals to start coming late August and into the Fall due to forbearance issues being resolved or dried up by then. Now, since there is some assistance out there, homeowners can skate by a little while longer, but once states open more we will see how the markets react and if there is a second wave that takes it down again. In most of those markets you mentioned, everything is still selling. There may be less inventory, but demand is still pretty solid if you look at the most recent nationwide stats.

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  • Jonathan GreeneBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Madison, NJ · Member since 2016 · 6k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    6y

    There are deals out there now in all markets, but I expect the best deals to start coming late August and into the Fall due to forbearance issues being resolved or dried up by then. Now, since there is some assistance out there, homeowners can skate by a little while longer, but once states open more we will see how the markets react and if there is a second wave that takes it down again. In most of those markets you mentioned, everything is still selling. There may be less inventory, but demand is still pretty solid if you look at the most recent nationwide stats.

  • Joseph CacciapagliaBusiness Member
    Lender · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    Not everyone in forbearance is unable to pay their mortgage. Many banks made it as simple as pushing a button on your home screen to stop making payments for 6 months. I know a lot of homeowners and investors that decided to do that, just to stockpile cash in case things get worse. There's really no telling how many of those loans in forbearance are related to borrowers that actually can't pay, and how many made a strategic decision. 

    My guess is that it's a pretty small number that are actually in trouble, at least in my market. Our rental collections have been virtually unchanged, and I would expect that renters are generally more vulnerable financially than homeowners. This would imply that most borrowers are also doing pretty well. We're also seeing very strong prices with our ongoing sales, which means that anyone that actually can't pay should have a decent chance at selling their property. Of course, all of this could change, if it takes a long time for everyone to get back to work.

    Joseph Cacciapaglia powered by Morty
  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y

    Some markets are indeed more subject to natural disasters, but the secret's out! Those markets are more heavily insured, and the underwriting in those markets accounts for the higher insurance cost. There are many good rental markets (Carolinas, GA, KY, TN, etc) which are not subject to relatively frequent natural disasters. Take a look at those areas as well.

    I'm paying much more attention to how markets treat property owners during this crisis. Some (Seattle) are leaving property owners out to dry, with long-term eviction freezes and no recourse. Other markets realize that we do not have bottomless pockets, and evictions are a necessity for a housing market to properly function.

  • Investor · Broken Arrow, OK · Member since 2016 · 210 posts · 314 votes
    6y

    @Kristin Cooper, first, best of luck with your decisions as they can be life-changing..  Getting into real estate was one of the best decisions my wife and I ever made and has enabled us to retire in our mid-50's.

    Second, we are heavily invested in SFH in Tulsa area and MFH in Dallas so I can only speak to those markets.

    Generally, though, I don't see similarities yet between the housing crisis of ~ 10 years ago and now (when we picked up a lot of SFH from distressed mortgage situations). As someone else stated, the forbearance rate doesn't mean anything at this point. We won't know if it means anything for a few months.

    RE: Tulsa... So far, we have not seen any negative impact as our collections are actually better than ever. If anything, it's been a positive as tenants seem to be putting more focus on financial discipline that perhaps they didn't have a few months ago. Will see if that continues. BTW, Tulsa continues to be a fairly stable housing market that is attractive to buy and hold investors. While we don't see big appreciation, we also don't see big depreciation. Keep in mind, I only have SFH in Tulsa and they are all upper blue-collar/lower white collar neighborhoods (specifically in the 3/2 category in suburbs with good school districts).

    RE: Dallas..  We only have MFH and they are all B properties.  Again, we are pleasantly surprised with rent collections.  We are glad we chose B properties as we do see some "Step down" effect of people in A properties wanting to save some $ and moving down to B properties as they still have similar amenities.  We don't see people moving from B to C, but who knows if that will happen should this continue too much longer.

    My advice for long-term investors:

      1. Know your goals - do you want to buy and hold and build cash flow or are you looking to buy and sell?  These are two very different goals which require very different strategies.

      2. Buy the right categories - if this COVID has taught up anything, it is to be in the right categories that are as recession proof as possible.  Unless you have government guaranteed rents, C's would not be a good category to be in right now.

      3. Capital is King! - If there are any forbearance issues, it will most likely be with investors who were not well capitalized and couldn't therefore weather storms.  This was critical to the housing crisis both for those that lost houses as well as those  who had a lot of capital on the side and able to pick up houses at discounts.  Now is the right time to build capital if you don't already have it.

      4. Constantly evaluate your strategies - Are your strategies helping you achieve your goals?  If not, readjust.  If so, stick to your knitting!

      Again, best of luck!

    1. Rental Property Investor · Tulsa, OK · Member since 2020 · 10 posts · 5 votes
      6y

      @John Kunick Hi John - What does SFH and MFH stand for?

    2. Lender · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 800 posts · 229 votes
      6y

      @Kristin Cooper be careful these days and review information here that I posted earlier... https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

      I feel it will provide some insight

    3. Real Estate Agent · Member since 2018 · 70 posts · 19 votes
      6y

      @Grant Maxey

      Single Family Home and Manufactured Home

    4. Rental Property Investor · Tulsa, OK · Member since 2020 · 10 posts · 5 votes
      6y

      @Brian Holt Thanks Brian.

    5. Investor · Broken Arrow, OK · Member since 2016 · 210 posts · 314 votes
      6y

      @Grant Maxey and @Brian Holt, sorry to correct, but SFH is indeed Single Family Homes, but MFH is Multi-family homes (apartment complexes primarily)

    6. Caroline DavisBusiness Member
      Real Estate Agent · Huntsville, AL · Member since 2018 · 95 posts · 90 votes
      6y

      https://www.al.com/news/huntsville/2020/06/north-alabama-home-market-avoids-covid-19-slump-in-may.html?fbclid=IwAR0yg8NvthOXDaMeHdkbae6ikQRiGHzyh-gMD9sr7co-BH9udoJsbzO8zr8

      North Alabama’s housing market grew in in May, avoiding a COVID-19 slump as sales agents move toward the prime summer home market. But not every county in the region saw the growth.

      Across the region, 1,278 homes sold in May, according to the Huntsville Area Association of Realtors (HAAR). The average sales price region-wide was $250,000, and the average time on the market was 49 days.

      In May 2019, by comparison, 762 homes sold in the area with an average sales price of $258,000 after an average of 54 days on the market.

      Number of sales and price climbed in the Huntsville-Madison County market, Athens-Limestone County market, Marshall and Dekalb county market and the Etowah-Cherokee county market. Sales declined in the Morgan-Lawrence County market and the Jackson County market.

      “May 2020’s statistics show that our local industry continues to avoid any downturn related to COVID-19 and social distancing. This is due to the unique state of our local market and economy, as well as widespread use by REALTORS® of tools like virtual open houses, remote notarizations and more,” the association said.

      New South Realtors LLC
    7. Member since 2019 · 30 posts · 4 votes
      6y

      Jonathan Green - now that time has passed - what are your thoughts?  Joseph Cacciapaglia - I agree that many have benefited from the forbearance.  Have your rental collections changed at all?  Taylor L - I saw how insurance screwed over the Paradise Fire victims.  Steve S. excellent comments!  Thank you for sharing your link!

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