SFR vs Syndicates?

SFR vs Syndicates?

Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes

I an American living abroad looking to invest into real estate. My original plan is to invest 50% in a mix of syndicates - value add B/C class midwest, some commercial and 50% on SFR. When I looked at the track records of certain syndicates that offer a mix of assets and thus diversify your risk, I find CoC that range between 7-9%, and overall 5 year IRR of 15-18% after appreciation. Liquidity is an issue, but that's real estate. There is also no time commitment on my side with all on those. On the other side, I see SFRs which I would love to invest in - but the math just isn't working out for me from a risk/benefit perspective when comparing with sydndicates. To stabilize an SFR to generate those kinds of returns, there is a ton of work, learning curve, luck in everything from choosing a neighborhood, house, team - you all know better than me. The long distance part is doable, but its just another variable. While my heart is still pulling to do at least one SFR just to learn the business (only way is to get your hands dirty at some point), my mind keeps stopping me because of the numbers. But people are building wealth with SFRs, not investing in syndicates - what am I missing here?

I am in tech - and have a family with young kids.  Time is limited.  Right now, I get up at 5 -do two hours of research, and then try to find some time during the night.  Discipline and motivation are not issues for me, I just want to make I am not wasting my time, working hard with a small chance of achieving returns had I just gave someone else the cash to invest.  

I am at an intersection, would love people's advice here.  

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Ian IppolitoBusiness Member
Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y

For vetting a syndication, different investors do it differently because every investor comes from a different financial situation and has different goals and risk tolerance. For me, I'm a very conservative investor and may look through a hundred deals a month, and at the end of the year only invest in 4-5. So things that are a red flag for me may be fine for someone more aggressive. Here's how I do my due diligence:

1) Portfolio matching: (takes 30 seconds per deal)

a) Have an educated opinion on where you think we are in the real estate cycles (financial and physical market cycles)

b) Then only then pick the strategies, capital stack, and specialized asset subclasses that make sense for that opinion. For example, I think we are late cycle, so I lean toward the safest part of capital stack which is debt (or debt free equity). I won't go with the riskiest opportunistic strategies, and will stick to core and core plus mostly with some value-added. I won't be investing in the riskiest/most supportable asset subclasses such as hotels, and tilt my portfolio the ones that have historically been more stable such as multifamily and single-family housing. I also don't want refinancing risk, so any deals with only 3 to 5 year debt are out for me. For someone that's not as conservative, or a different view on the next recession, they might have a different opinion than me on all of this

2) Sponsor quality check: (takes about 45 minutes per deal)

I believe that a great sponsor can take an average looking deal and make it great, and that in mediocre sponsor can take a fantastic looking deal and make it bad (especially if there is a severe recession). So I start with the sponsor first. Again, others might disagree.

a) Track Record: Get the entire track record for the strategy. As easy as this sounds, it's not simple and usually like pulling teeth. Many times they will claim it's wonderful and then try to hide their worst deals by only showing completed deals. Make sure to get unexited deals. Or if they are doing value-added multifamily, they will show you their hotel experience. That doesn't cut it for me. I want a specialist that's an expert, and not a jack of all trades and master of none. Also, in a mainstream asset class like value-added multifamily, I see no reason to take a risk on a sponsor that doesn't have full real estate cycle experience and didn't lose money. Again, other might feel differently here.

b) Skin in the game: as a conservative investor, I understand that the dirty secret of industries that the waterfall compensation is in the line with me and incentivizes sponsors to take more risk. So I require skin in the game (average is 5% to 15%) to offset this. Contrary to popular belief, this is not set because I believe it will give me a higher return. I believe it tends to give me a slightly lower return, because the sponsor is going to be more careful, and if there is a severe downturn will prevent me from taking catastrophic losses. Someone that is more aggressive, may want lesser even though skin in the game. Also, if the sponsor is new, I am fine with less skin in the game as long as it is significant to their net worth. On the other hand if they are a sponsor that is experienced in stopping a skin in the game, that's a huge red flag for me.

c) how open to scrutiny are they? I always discuss investments with others in an investor club because other people might think of things that I might miss. And even though virtually every sponsor agreement allows me to share investment information with others who might be advising me on it (especially when club members are bound by an NDA), I still ask the sponsor if I can share it, because it's a test. Most are fine with that, but a few will have problems with it and claim there are legal issues, etc.. That's a red flag for me.

d) death by Google: I Google everything I can about the sponsor. I check the SEC, FINRA, ratings websites for inside information on the principals in the company. I also look for lawsuits and see what happened in them. Many times it's an easy red flag. Sometimes it's ambiguous, but even then, why should I bother with the company that has numerous unresolved lawsuits, versus another company that is virtually the same but has none. Again, others might feel differently here.

3) property level due diligence: (takes seconds to weeks per deal): here is where I drill in with the low-level details.

a) pro forma popping: I examine all the assumptions, and see if they are overoptimistic or not. I look at every single item in the pro forma and imagine that it is complete BS, and see if I can challenge it. If there's a hole, it may be a red flag.

b) sensitivity analysis: I examine all the assumptions, and make sure I can live with the worst case scenarios.

c) "Stall and see": if they are getting money over multiple years, and there is no penalty for investing later, I would usually wait so I get some real performance data, versus having to look at theoretical pro forma information.

d) Recession stress test: I will not invest in anything, until I subject it to recession level stress and see if I can live with the result. And I take the worst recession I can find in the recent past. Sometimes there is only great recession data, and that recession was pretty mild on some asset classes, versus previous recessions. So I will usually 1.5x or 2.0x the stress. If the deal collapses and I would lose everything, I'm out. Others might be fine with taking risk, but least by doing this a person can get an idea of what might go wrong.

e) Legal document analysis: it will usually take a few days to go through the legal document properly, as almost inevitably there are tons of gotchas that either have to be explained, or mitigated with a side letter.

That is the very short summary of what I do. If you want more information, p.m. me and I can give you a lot more details.

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  • Specialist · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Ryan Lauretta:

    I an American living abroad looking to invest into real estate. My original plan is to invest 50% in a mix of syndicates - value add B/C class midwest, some commercial and 50% on SFR. When I looked at the track records of certain syndicates that offer a mix of assets and thus diversify your risk, I find CoC that range between 7-9%, and overall 5 year IRR of 15-18% after appreciation. Liquidity is an issue, but that's real estate. There is also no time commitment on my side with all on those. On the other side, I see SFRs which I would love to invest in - but the math just isn't working out for me from a risk/benefit perspective when comparing with sydndicates. To stabilize an SFR to generate those kinds of returns, there is a ton of work, learning curve, luck in everything from choosing a neighborhood, house, team - you all know better than me. The long distance part is doable, but its just another variable. While my heart is still pulling to do at least one SFR just to learn the business (only way is to get your hands dirty at some point), my mind keeps stopping me because of the numbers. But people are building wealth with SFRs, not investing in syndicates - what am I missing here?

    I am in tech - and have a family with young kids.  Time is limited.  Right now, I get up at 5 -do two hours of research, and then try to find some time during the night.  Discipline and motivation are not issues for me, I just want to make I am not wasting my time, working hard with a small chance of achieving returns had I just gave someone else the cash to invest.  

    I am at an intersection, would love people's advice here.  

    You either need a specialized Turnkey like the link below or a Syndication of a large apartment complex. Both can be passive with great returns. I don't think the midwest will give you the returns you want. Here is a sample for Phoenix AZ which gives great freedom. Syndication locks you in for 5 years or more with no option if that market changes or bad management. Turnkey Phoenix gives you great returns and flexibility. 

    Average Turnkey Cash Flow Per Door In Phoenix Metro Area No Bank Financing Needed

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/600/topics/584916-average-cash-flow-per-door-in-phoenix-metro-area

  • Roni E.Pro Member
    Specialist · Earth 2.0 · Member since 2019 · 598 posts · 271 votes
    6y

    Hello, with the mixture of living overseas, family time and limited time I would just focus on Syndication and maybe something outside of real estate. I would diversify maybe some Multifamily and self-storage. I would stay away from SFR. At some point a market correction will occur. A SFR has only 1 income source and if something happens to that tenant you will have issues. Cash flow is king.

  • Rental Property Investor · Honolulu, HAWAII (HI) · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta

    Its not one or the other its your situation - time/money

    I started with getting 11 sfhs because I did not have the net worth to go into syndications. Looking back I wished I would have done syndications sooner but the rentals gave me the experience to evaluate what is real and what is not in the plethora of polished pitch decks out there. That said I should have stopped at 3-6 rentals or as soon as my net worth went over 500k.

  • Rental Property Investor · Columbus, OH · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 100 votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta, if your time is limited and you have the extra capital, syndication or NNN investing is the way to go when it comes to owning real estate. They're both extremely passive, syndication's more so. SFR's, even with a property manager, will require your time; you'll be managing the manager. Depending on how many properties you have, will depend on the time requirements. I like your strategy on diversifying multifamily and commercial syndication's. When interviewing sponsors, make sure to find out how much leverage they're using. We're at an interesting time in the market, the less leverage the better. We're putting 40-50% down on our deals to mitigate risk.

  • Rental Property Investor · Weehawken, NJ · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 704 votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta

    I think @Account Closed has the right idea, with the distance, the management issues will become a large burden. I invest in syndications, SFH, and I have had a small duplex. That last one was the one where I was most actively involved, and it was my worst performer. The savings and optimization that a local landlord can capture are not available to you at a distance. If you have a close partner on the ground, it's one thing. I just don't think you can sub service providers for that sort of relationship.

    Syndications and Turnkey are made to serve your needs regarding distance. They obviously take their cut, but I assure you the tradeoff is worth it.

  • Equity Raiser and Turnkey Provider · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Ryan Lauretta:

    I an American living abroad looking to invest into real estate. My original plan is to invest 50% in a mix of syndicates - value add B/C class midwest, some commercial and 50% on SFR. When I looked at the track records of certain syndicates that offer a mix of assets and thus diversify your risk, I find CoC that range between 7-9%, and overall 5 year IRR of 15-18% after appreciation. Liquidity is an issue, but that's real estate. There is also no time commitment on my side with all on those. On the other side, I see SFRs which I would love to invest in - but the math just isn't working out for me from a risk/benefit perspective when comparing with sydndicates. To stabilize an SFR to generate those kinds of returns, there is a ton of work, learning curve, luck in everything from choosing a neighborhood, house, team - you all know better than me. The long distance part is doable, but its just another variable. While my heart is still pulling to do at least one SFR just to learn the business (only way is to get your hands dirty at some point), my mind keeps stopping me because of the numbers. But people are building wealth with SFRs, not investing in syndicates - what am I missing here?

    I am in tech - and have a family with young kids.  Time is limited.  Right now, I get up at 5 -do two hours of research, and then try to find some time during the night.  Discipline and motivation are not issues for me, I just want to make I am not wasting my time, working hard with a small chance of achieving returns had I just gave someone else the cash to invest.  

    I am at an intersection, would love people's advice here.  

     Having had experience with both that is a tough call. SFRs and funds can be great it just depends on your strategy. I would look into doing both for diversification. 

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2019 · 499 posts · 259 votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta

    I invested in both. The main thing with with owning SF is you have full control and syndications you don't. It sounds like you're also wanting to gain some experience, but don't want to commit to this full-time given your situation. For this, you may want to consider turnkey for you first deal. You don't necessarily have to build your own team from scratch and you don't have to worry about managing a rehab project remotely. But you do get a taste on the acquisition process, how to analyze deals, and what to expect on the management side. I got my start with turnkeys before becoming comfortable going out on my own.

  • Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    This is all fantastic advice and I thank you all for it. My job is demanding and while I am drawn very much to SFRs, I am experienced enough to wonder if I can really manage the time to make educated decisions, or am I just depending on luck. Turnkey properties will rarely deliver better returns than a good syndicate and there are plenty to choose from. BRRRR is just not practical given long distance and no experience. The forums here are full of experience investors who say the market is inflated and good deals are hard to find.

    My heart is telling me to do one SFR to learn this thing - but the logic is just blocking me. If I don't start now the learning process, when will be the right time?

    There's a difference between investment (syndications) and building a business (SFR). At the end my goal is monthly cash flow to reduce the load of work I have now. Just want to start to step away from the rat race.

  • Whitney HuttenPro Member
    Investor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta You have some solid advice here. Personally, I do a hybrid of SFRs, small MF and syndication. I have a portfolio of BRRRR homes that I use the cashflow and equity repositioning to invest in syndications. You can find people who will do the BRRRR for you. However, this took a few years of work to build even with using out other people's systems to get it done.

    I'll be upfront, my syndications run way smoother ;) However, on syndications, the time to build equity is longer (think of it as a long BRRRR if you are investing in a value add strategy). Also, the proforma returns are a "best guess"... there are no guarantees. So you HAVE TO pick a solid operator because you are giving up control in that aspect to reposition the property when you want (but you gain so much more).

    Back to the SFRs, if you are thinking just "one to learn"... my two cents... DON'T!!! Personally, it's risky... you are either 100% occupied or 100% vacant and just not worth it.  I'd invest in a smaller syndication (there are groups that do $20K+ entries) and be the fly on the wall and learn.  

    If you are going to do SFRs, commit to getting around 10, that way you have scale behind you.  No real science in that number... only the larger portfolio you have and if it's well maintained, the more stable you might be.

    PM me with Q's!

  • Rental Property Investor · Logan, UT · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 19 votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta

    You do NOT want to do a deal just to learn. It's a lot more work then you plan for. I decided to get a triplex to learn and it has been a lot of work and I live in one unit, it would be a lot if it was long distance too.

    In your scenario, syndication is the best route, plus with the economy right now, SFR are harder to find profitable.

    My advice would be to get into value-add syndicates now since you want to invest and then when the economy changes and SFR numbers make sense and you still want to go that route then do it.

  • Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    You all are awesome - your advice is invaluable.  Thx

  • Ian IppolitoBusiness Member
    Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Ryan Lauretta:

    This is all fantastic advice and I thank you all for it. My job is demanding and while I am drawn very much to SFRs, I am experienced enough to wonder if I can really manage the time to make educated decisions, or am I just depending on luck. Turnkey properties will rarely deliver better returns than a good syndicate and there are plenty to choose from. BRRRR is just not practical given long distance and no experience. The forums here are full of experience investors who say the market is inflated and good deals are hard to find.

    My heart is telling me to do one SFR to learn this thing - but the logic is just blocking me. If I don't start now the learning process, when will be the right time?

    There's a difference between investment (syndications) and building a business (SFR). At the end my goal is monthly cash flow to reduce the load of work I have now. Just want to start to step away from the rat race.

    Ryan, I live off of my investment income and have both SFR's and passive investments in my portfolio. I think both are great and yet both have pros and cons and neither is perfect. So if your particular situation is such that you can only be passive, there is no real problem or issue with that.

    If you're going that route I would personally say to ignore the advice about "you need to buy one property and manage it yourself to learn". While it would be helpful a little, I would guess that 90%+ of the day-to-day experience would be a complete waste for someone going passive.

    Your time would be much better spent learning how to do effective due diligence (which is a arguably even more difficult skill to acquire and something you would actually be using 100% of the time). If you need tips on this, just let me know and I'm happy to share my own personal method. Good luck.

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  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Haydn Zeis:

    @Ryan Lauretta, if your time is limited and you have the extra capital, syndication or NNN investing is the way to go when it comes to owning real estate. They're both extremely passive, syndication's more so. SFR's, even with a property manager, will require your time; you'll be managing the manager. Depending on how many properties you have, will depend on the time requirements. I like your strategy on diversifying multifamily and commercial syndication's. When interviewing sponsors, make sure to find out how much leverage they're using. We're at an interesting time in the market, the less leverage the better. We're putting 40-50% down on our deals to mitigate risk.

     What kind of cash on cash returns are you producing with that little leverage? I agree that prudent debt strategy is very important, it just seems like it'd be difficult to produce a comfortable return at 50% levered.

    As far as the OP's question - the right answer for me was syndication. I didn't want to manage SFRs (still don't) and I like the scaleability syndicated real estate. Once you're in the syndication ecosphere it's much easier to build relationships with people who deals of all types, such as NNN, self storage, and so on.

  • Rental Property Investor · Columbus, OH · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 100 votes
    6y

    @Taylor L. last year we paid our investors an 8.77% cash-on-cash return.  We use a waterfall structure, 8% preferred return, then we take our asset management fee, then split the rest based on the deal's equity split structure.  We're in somewhat of an overlooked market allowing us to purchase at higher caps.  We invest in office, flex, and retail. 

  • Lender · Ladera Ranch, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta I used to be in a situation similar to yours. I used to work 2-3 months at a time, 6-8 months a year overseas but I was in a place with limited internet and phone connectivity. It made investing difficult. What made a huge difference was that I found a business partner based in the U.S. who was equally motivated to invest and could watch over our investments when I couldn't.

    I finally made the transition to being home and investing full time. It doesn't sound like you're looking to transition to full time real estate?

    If you're not, I say focus on what you do best to make income. Invest passively in the area of real estate that you like best as a debt or equity partner. You're already looking at some syndications. See what other types of real estate you might be interested in. I think Ian is right about doing the proper due diligence on any fund that you might invest in. Do the work upfront. When you're satisfied and trust that they will do what they say, the investment becomes passive and you just need to monitor it.

    Have you thought about non performing notes? :)

  • Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    @Andy Mirza, thanks for your message, I am unfamiliar with that asset.  Can you provide more details?  

    @Taylor L., I am looking to place $25K in each investment, whether a syndicate or SFR. In the case of an SFR, it would be 75% lever, and I would like to be between 8-10% CoC.

    @Ian Ippolito, @Whitney Hutten, Thx for offering link to connect, I'll PM you

    As far as DD on syndicates, obvious things that come to mind are track record, debt/equity relationship, interest rates, location, asset class and type, management experience, current holdings, comparables, coupon vs appreciation, asset trend (for example over development in student housing), value-add vs. construction.  Anyone has a formula that's useful to efficiently evaluate these?

    Since opening this thread, I actually already invested in one value add multifamily in B/C class that invests in multiple properties.   The decision has very much to do with the advice provided here.  My next investment will likely be another $25K in commercial, I have a couple of targets.  The idea here is to diversify the risk with management, asset type and number of assets.  The less I know, and I know that I don't know, the more I need to diversify.   That said there are some fantastic teams out there offering $100K min in one asset and they have just phenomenal track record.   The objective financial mind say diversify, but the subjective says go with the great track record.  For now, going with objective.  

    On BRRRR, the math shows that these are the fastest way to build wealth. I have not figured out how to walk down the learning curve on those living abroad and working in tech.
      

  • Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    Your thoughts on this one.  A U.S. based fund that buys off shares from syndicate holders from individuals or institutions who are looking to liquidate prior to the maturity of the investment.  There has to be a certain % of people who are looking to cash out early for many reasons.  Since these sellers need the cash immediately, the fund gets the assets at significant discounts.  In addition, they are considerably lowering the risk since they are buying the shares after the asset has been stabilized. The fund mostly focuses on large commercial projects.   They've shown +-15% returns, from this between 4-5% are coupons.  Hold time is at least 3 years, min investment $100K.  They make their killer returns by buying mature, cash generating assets at a discount, thus solving the liquidity issues that many of us fear when investing in these.   Thoughts?

  • Lender · Ladera Ranch, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta Non performing notes backed by residential real estate are defaulted mortgages, most of them originated prior to the housing meltdown. We buy them low and liquidate at a higher price. Liquidation methods are foreclosure, short sales, deed in lieus, and selling re-performing loans.

    We buy multiple loans for our funds, which allows us to spread risk among all the notes.

    $25k minimum, 3 year max hold time.

    Check us out or one of the other note funds out there if you're interested :)

  • Ian IppolitoBusiness Member
    Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    For vetting a syndication, different investors do it differently because every investor comes from a different financial situation and has different goals and risk tolerance. For me, I'm a very conservative investor and may look through a hundred deals a month, and at the end of the year only invest in 4-5. So things that are a red flag for me may be fine for someone more aggressive. Here's how I do my due diligence:

    1) Portfolio matching: (takes 30 seconds per deal)

    a) Have an educated opinion on where you think we are in the real estate cycles (financial and physical market cycles)

    b) Then only then pick the strategies, capital stack, and specialized asset subclasses that make sense for that opinion. For example, I think we are late cycle, so I lean toward the safest part of capital stack which is debt (or debt free equity). I won't go with the riskiest opportunistic strategies, and will stick to core and core plus mostly with some value-added. I won't be investing in the riskiest/most supportable asset subclasses such as hotels, and tilt my portfolio the ones that have historically been more stable such as multifamily and single-family housing. I also don't want refinancing risk, so any deals with only 3 to 5 year debt are out for me. For someone that's not as conservative, or a different view on the next recession, they might have a different opinion than me on all of this

    2) Sponsor quality check: (takes about 45 minutes per deal)

    I believe that a great sponsor can take an average looking deal and make it great, and that in mediocre sponsor can take a fantastic looking deal and make it bad (especially if there is a severe recession). So I start with the sponsor first. Again, others might disagree.

    a) Track Record: Get the entire track record for the strategy. As easy as this sounds, it's not simple and usually like pulling teeth. Many times they will claim it's wonderful and then try to hide their worst deals by only showing completed deals. Make sure to get unexited deals. Or if they are doing value-added multifamily, they will show you their hotel experience. That doesn't cut it for me. I want a specialist that's an expert, and not a jack of all trades and master of none. Also, in a mainstream asset class like value-added multifamily, I see no reason to take a risk on a sponsor that doesn't have full real estate cycle experience and didn't lose money. Again, other might feel differently here.

    b) Skin in the game: as a conservative investor, I understand that the dirty secret of industries that the waterfall compensation is in the line with me and incentivizes sponsors to take more risk. So I require skin in the game (average is 5% to 15%) to offset this. Contrary to popular belief, this is not set because I believe it will give me a higher return. I believe it tends to give me a slightly lower return, because the sponsor is going to be more careful, and if there is a severe downturn will prevent me from taking catastrophic losses. Someone that is more aggressive, may want lesser even though skin in the game. Also, if the sponsor is new, I am fine with less skin in the game as long as it is significant to their net worth. On the other hand if they are a sponsor that is experienced in stopping a skin in the game, that's a huge red flag for me.

    c) how open to scrutiny are they? I always discuss investments with others in an investor club because other people might think of things that I might miss. And even though virtually every sponsor agreement allows me to share investment information with others who might be advising me on it (especially when club members are bound by an NDA), I still ask the sponsor if I can share it, because it's a test. Most are fine with that, but a few will have problems with it and claim there are legal issues, etc.. That's a red flag for me.

    d) death by Google: I Google everything I can about the sponsor. I check the SEC, FINRA, ratings websites for inside information on the principals in the company. I also look for lawsuits and see what happened in them. Many times it's an easy red flag. Sometimes it's ambiguous, but even then, why should I bother with the company that has numerous unresolved lawsuits, versus another company that is virtually the same but has none. Again, others might feel differently here.

    3) property level due diligence: (takes seconds to weeks per deal): here is where I drill in with the low-level details.

    a) pro forma popping: I examine all the assumptions, and see if they are overoptimistic or not. I look at every single item in the pro forma and imagine that it is complete BS, and see if I can challenge it. If there's a hole, it may be a red flag.

    b) sensitivity analysis: I examine all the assumptions, and make sure I can live with the worst case scenarios.

    c) "Stall and see": if they are getting money over multiple years, and there is no penalty for investing later, I would usually wait so I get some real performance data, versus having to look at theoretical pro forma information.

    d) Recession stress test: I will not invest in anything, until I subject it to recession level stress and see if I can live with the result. And I take the worst recession I can find in the recent past. Sometimes there is only great recession data, and that recession was pretty mild on some asset classes, versus previous recessions. So I will usually 1.5x or 2.0x the stress. If the deal collapses and I would lose everything, I'm out. Others might be fine with taking risk, but least by doing this a person can get an idea of what might go wrong.

    e) Legal document analysis: it will usually take a few days to go through the legal document properly, as almost inevitably there are tons of gotchas that either have to be explained, or mitigated with a side letter.

    That is the very short summary of what I do. If you want more information, p.m. me and I can give you a lot more details.

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  • Rental Property Investor · Fort Wayne, IN · Member since 2016 · 258 posts · 177 votes
    6y

    @Ryan Lauretta keep it simple not complicated, just invest in different multifamily syndications with multiple syndicators.

  • Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    @Ian Ippolito - extremely helpful, just fantastic, thx!

  • Specialist · Dallas, TX · Member since 2014 · 900 posts · 392 votes
    6y

    Spreading the risk is correct vs buying a note or 2.  You risk getting the homeowner who is use to not paying, and really does not want to pay. Even IF you can get them to start repaying, you might get one that refuses, and you have to file for foreclosure. Then its a 6 month to 6 year headache depending in your state, and $3,500 to $10,000 to do it. 

    Then they file for chapter 13 the day before the sale, delaying  it up to 5 years if it goes through to discharge. The plan will pay the first lien holder and you better have an appraisal to back up the value if you have a junior, otherwise they will undervalue it and cram you down to an unsecured lender. 

    About 2/3 won't make it, and you will have to spend more money to get a stay if possible to go back to sale. Some don't even make the multiple filing payments and the case is dismissed in 6 months and you spend more money on attorneys to go back to sale.

    Then they file BK AGAIN. The point I am making is for you out of the country with a life, a NPL or 2 is super risky. A solid performing note, senior or junior, on a person who has a solid credit score, payment history, etc., would be a better avenue, combined with the other suggestions here. You can run credit on someone during your due diligence if you are buying the loan.

    Just avoid guru's who sell stuff...

  • Member since 2019 · 15 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    Here's my highly simplified newbie math on SFRs on a hypothetical $100K investment for 4 SFRs. this includes some optimistic assumptions, probably a year to ramp up and I gather dozens if not hundreds of hours of work. RoE is about 75% for 5 years. A good syndicate would do much better and I don't have to take out loans for over $250K. Unless I do some sort of catalyzing strategy e.g. BRRRR, I don't see how these numbers get any better. Any other catalyzing strategy I'm missing here, or something with the cash flow and ROE is off?

    If not, I am probably going to with @Ian Ippolito's strategy and that's to learn to vet great syndicators and grow from there.  

    House 1 House 2 House 3 House 4
    Invest 25000 25000 25000 25000
    Price 80000 85000 90000 80000
    After closing - including repairs 88000 93000 98000 88000
    Mortgage 63000 68000 73000 63000
    Annual Net CoC 0.07 0.08 0.1 0.07
    Annual Return income 1750 2000 2500 1750
    Price increase 15% 25% 5% 30%
    Sale price Yr5 92000 106250 94500 104000
    Closing costs -4000 -3500 -4000 -4000
    Payback loan -58000 -63000 -68000 -58000
    Total Equity from sale 30000 39750 22500 42000
    Total Equity from rent 8750 10000 12500 8750
    Total 5 year return 38750 49750 35000 50750
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