1890's duplex rehab - Troy, NY - looking for some advice

1890's duplex rehab - Troy, NY - looking for some advice

Engineer · RENSSELAER, NY · Member since 2017 · 16 posts · 5 votes

Okay so I'll try to keep this concise. I'm looking for advice, and if anyone local is interested in perhaps taking over the project, having lunch/coffee, or recommending any good property managers/GCs, I'm all ears!

I purchased this 2-story brick rowhouse, 1890's vintage, from the bank in November 2018. It's right on the edge of an improving downtown, but still in a transitional area. 1 block north there are (very large) million dollar historic homes, but 1 block south is a C-ish area. There are properties undergoing mid-high end renovations right across the street, opposite corner, etc. Plan was to make high-end rental units with some exposed brick, in-unit washer/dryer, off-street parking, tile shower, solid countertops, etc.

Mistake 1: I had a local architect make building plans involving a floorplan change for a new bath/kitchen/master bedroom with walk-in closet arrangement in the rear of the units. However, I didn't ask the architect for an estimated cost of the renovations. Perhaps I didn't want to hear that I couldn't afford to do this project.

Mistake 2: I probably overpaid a bit for the property out of the gate considering it's condition (vacant for 4 years, copper boiler pipes cut out, kitchens and baths complete disaster, etc). But it's an improving area that I am pretty stoked about, and I decided I would "bet on the appreciation" just a little bit here.

Mistake 3: I estimated the repair costs myself, not taking into account the cost of working on a property this old, in NY state, in an area that has a lot going on and not a huge shortage of work right now.

So my estimate was purchase price of $85k, renovations $60k (ya, I know), and hopefully an appraised value around $175k for a successful BRRRR deal. Now I'm realizing to actually do the renovation I had envisioned, it's probably more along the lines of 2x-3x that ($120k-$180k), so with purchase price, and all other costs, I'd probably be all in at around $100k over appraised value. Ouch. I've already eaten up 2/3 of my original renovation budget on just a new roof, cleanout of the basement, demo, and framing.

The way I see it, I've got 3 paths forward:

1. Sell (probably at a loss) - lesson learned, move on. Regret if/when area turns around.

2. Find more funding and plow all the money in to complete the intended rehab. HODL (hold on for dear life) until area turns around, telling myself that in the long run, even going way overbudget will eventually not be felt once the property. My estimates based on comparable units within the same block are that I could get $1250/unit, making the property able to sustain about $200k total debt and still break even.

3. Reduce the scope, remove some luxury items, go with cheap HVAC option (space heaters and/or electric baseboard), section 8 even, just to get it rented. Downside with this is dealing with the tenants it will draw, and then if/when the area turns around, I might have missed the market's desires.

I'm thinking that I should get an appraisal subject to my repairs so I at least know what I can expect to get back when I refinance. I'm trying to get in touch with local property managers, to confirm my rent estimates and see what the location can support in terms of luxury features.

Any advice is much appreciated.

John

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Rental Property Investor · Greenwich, CT · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
6y

@John Hutchison, can you scrap the floor-plan change in order to bring your budget in line? $30k/unit is still a substantial amount of money. Perhaps there are opportunities to set yourself up for future update. E.g. run the plumbing for in-unit laundry, but don't provide the machines; upgrade the electrical, but don't install central A/C yet.

If you can actually get $1250/unit and keep your all-in costs ~$130-150k, I expect you'll be in pretty great shape as far as cash flow. Even if you leave a bit of money in the deal, I bet you can cash flow $500+/month. That's going to be a great ROI no matter how you cut it.

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  • Rental Property Investor · Greenwich, CT · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    @John Hutchison, can you scrap the floor-plan change in order to bring your budget in line? $30k/unit is still a substantial amount of money. Perhaps there are opportunities to set yourself up for future update. E.g. run the plumbing for in-unit laundry, but don't provide the machines; upgrade the electrical, but don't install central A/C yet.

    If you can actually get $1250/unit and keep your all-in costs ~$130-150k, I expect you'll be in pretty great shape as far as cash flow. Even if you leave a bit of money in the deal, I bet you can cash flow $500+/month. That's going to be a great ROI no matter how you cut it.

  • Engineer · RENSSELAER, NY · Member since 2017 · 16 posts · 5 votes
    6y

    Thanks Jaysen - the floorplan change I'm basically committed to at this point, because there is nothing left remaining of the old plan. I may take your advice and see where I can cut costs in the short term and still leave myself the option of upgrading in the future.

  • Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    6y

    @John Hutchison how sure are you of that 175k value? Spending 100k over what it’s worth isn’t a good idea either.

  • Ryan VienneauBusiness Member
    Investor · Stillwater, NY · Member since 2015 · 149 posts · 121 votes
    6y

    That sucks man, sorry to hear that...good news is, you're not alone, we see this quite a bit, especially in Troy right now, so chalk it up to an "educational experience."  Bad news is, if you think you'll be into it for $100k over appraisal once all is said and done, this is a very simple math problem: if you were to sell it as is right now, would you lose more or less than $100k?  If the answer is "less", then you need to dump it since there is no point in throwing good money after bad.  

    The Troy market is at the very top of its cycle right now, so your odds of finding someone else to overpay for a half-complete project like yours are about as good as they'll ever be, and there are a lot of NYC investors flush with cash coming up here that are willing to invest in projects that don't remotely pencil out, but I'll bet you can find plenty with more money than brains to take it off your hands and stem your losses.  

    And not only that, but BRRR is a very tough strategy to make work here in the capital region if you're rehabbing anything 4 units and smaller, because the banks generally appraise smaller properties based on comps, not on the economics of the property, so even if you get awesome rents and manage it perfectly and make boatloads of money on the property, there are too many other similarly-sized properties on every block that are selling for peanuts because they're dumps, and the banks still let that drag your value down.  

    For example, a couple years ago I did a rehab on a duplex in Schenectady, bought it for $60k in a nice suburban neighborhood, put $35k into it, and rent the units for $1200 (3BR) and $1500 (4BR), all separate utilities.  It still only appraised for $110k after 6 mos of seasoning.  I told the appraiser if he could find me ANY other property in the capital region that rents for $2700 and only costs $110k, tell me because I'd buy every single one, as would any other investor I work with.  He obviously didn't care.   Point is, banks are still way more skittish than the market right now on refi's, so don't bank on your refi appraisal being anywhere near what the market will pay for that same property.

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  • Engineer · RENSSELAER, NY · Member since 2017 · 16 posts · 5 votes
    6y

    Thanks for the advice Ryan ... that's a very good point that I've been pondering as well. Even if I can invest the remainder on justification of the rental income vs. operating costs, it will need to be mostly with funding that can be sustained long-term, because the re-fi I'm sure will be dismal. To be sure of that, I should probably cough up the cost of an appraisal to help me in the decision-making process.

    BRRRR probably works best when your property has the same "stats" as others in the area that are finished to a higher degree (and that owner occupants are paying top dollar for).

  • Engineer · RENSSELAER, NY · Member since 2017 · 16 posts · 5 votes
    6y

    Hey all, an update on a positive note ... I tracked down an experienced investor in Troy who agreed to consult for me on this project, and I now have some competent contractors in place doing work. I believe I have a path to completion with around 100k left to spend, and a few long weekends of my own labor. I also have several comps within a block for between $235k and $267k, so I'm feeling a little better about my refi. At this point, I'm glad I stuck with it, and hope that we can power through this year!

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