Should a new investor wait for the recession? (Newbies must read)

[Bill Plymouth]

"Hello BP!   I've spent months studying everything I can, and I'm finally ready to start my investment journey.  I've come across some information that tells me that we are at the top of the market.  Should I wait until the next recession to start buying so that I can find better deals?".  If I had a dollar for every time I've seen this question in the forums, I would be able to buy all of my deals, in cash, for the rest of my life.  I'm hoping this post can be a resource for the future investors out there who have this question bouncing around in their heads.

Almost every investor and their mother knows this Warren Buffet quote.  This quote is probably the reason why every new investor thinks that they should wait for a recession.  When a recession comes, people get scared.  When people get scared, they go into survival mode.  In survival mode, people horde their resources until they feel the threat has passed.  While everyone else is hoarding their money, savvy investors are buying up property across town at a major discount.  As a new investor, this sounds like the perfect opportunity to really start your investing career on the right foot.  Here's the catch.  In a recession, cash is king.  Most new investors, don't have the cash necessary to make the moves needed during a recession.  Banks are run by people.  When people are scared, they horde their resources.  That goes for hard money and private lenders as well.  Getting funding in a recession is tough.  The average BP investor will get stuck watching on the sidelines while the vets and cash cows purchase everything they see at a discount price.  

"But Bill, I'm a new investor and I have a lot of cash.  I want to wait for a recession".  Great!  I'm glad you have capital on hand.  It will make your investing journey slightly easier.  How long do you plan on waiting for this recession?  A few months? A year? A decade?  The point is, unless you have a crystal ball, you can't tell me when the next recession is going to be.  If you do have that crystal ball, I know a lot of people who will pay a pretty penny for your services.  

"Bill, If I can't wait for a recession, when can I buy?".  NOW IS ALWAYS THE BEST TIME TO BUY!  I would even venture to say that market price doesn't mean a damn thing!  As an investor, if you're buying at market price, a recession will bury you.  You don't have a cushion to protect you from going under.  You want to make sure your properties are as recession proof as possible.  The best way to do that is to solve a problem.  If you can solve someone's problem, you can find a deal.  If John homeowner is about to lose his house in a sheriff sale, he will be willing to sell quickly for cash. In a good market, a hard money lender or a private lender will be easy to come by (as long as it's a good deal).  You can find a tired landlord and set up a seller financing deal.  There are plenty of creative ways to solve a problem and get a property at a discount, even in a good market.  You just need to be willing to put the extra work in. 

I hope this was helpful to any new investors out there who were concerned about starting at the wrong time.  It's always the right time!  Good luck moving forward in your investing career!