Where is the opportunity to invest in 2014

Question

Gold is down 20%, Dollar remains flat at an index of 80 - 81. The U.S. Stock market is up 20+% ( I didn't see this coming and did not invest here), TBT is up 30% (2x short the treasury bond since May 2012) ( I did see this coming) Single Family homes in my area is up 20% ( did see this coming and invested here). China, India, and emerging markets is down 3-5% this year.

As we come to a close in 2013, where are investment opportunity in 2014. Will we see investor 30 year fixed mortgages at 5%+. Will real estate continue to rise? Will the DOW correct 20%?
	 
	   Does anybody here in bigger pockets have a crystal ball? 
	 I am bullish on the U.S. dollar in 2014.

Love to hear your thoughts.

Buddy LaRue · Answer

@Ali Boone  Life is too short to ALWAYS be serious.   REI is supposed to be profitable and FUN.    Thanks for noticing.

Buddy LaRue · Answer

Darn,   My crystal ball is cracked.

Stephen Collins · Answer

@James  Park  would you invest in Charlotte or Atlanta? Lets say for a buy and hold SFH.

James Park · Answer

agree on nat gas and oil. Jeremiah, so u think undervalued markets like atlanta and charolotte will out perform expensive markets like la/oc in 2014. I agree with this too.

Dollar index is currently at 81.02 and ten year yield is at 2.7. My crystal ball tells me they are going higher in 2014.

My crystal ball seems to work fine too, but the timing seems.to be a little cracked. My crystall ball still tells me to short the euro and  treasury bonds and continue to invest in premium assets in atlanta and not to buy junk ( 2% 50% rule assets)

Also agree on gold and commodities will decline further in 2014. I think atlanta... investing in the right zip codes will be hot in 2014. People call this place hotlanta for a reason. Atlanta is the new emerging Los Angeles and I am so blessed to be living here.

Jeremiah B. · Answer

Odd - my crystal ball seems to be working just fine...

Overall, real estate will have a modest year - but that will be an aggregate of strong gains in cheap markets, and weak gains in expensive markets.  Though intra-market variance will resemble a normal healthy market.  Rents will be soft for 1-2 years.

Bonds will have a great year, but their returns will still be piddly.  I'm not touching them.

Gold and most commodities will decline.  Oil is the exception, and will show decent gains.

Stocks will have a volatile year, but end roughly flat.

For me - I'll continue to invest in SFRs in Charlotte, and invest around 10% in my 401k (primarily index funds).

Jim M. · Answer

I see tech stocks taking a hit in 2014.  Oil and nat gas stocks will have a nice year.  I'd invest in that area.  Rentals are still a solid investment but I am very wary with the hedge funds and when they eventually dump them.

James Park · Answer

Commodity cycles have peaked every 30 years from 1920, 1950, 1980. I closed out of all my gold positions 8 months early before gold reached its peak of $1920/ounce in April 2011. Gold prices were at $280/ounce in 2001. In 1971, gold prices were at $35 and peaked to $850/ounce in 1980. Therefore, I had thought gold will peak in 2010.

Looking at the long term dollar chart, I am under the belief that after 2011, assets that favorable will be american assets and the U.S. dollar, where as from 2001 - 2011 foreign assets and weak dollar was the play. The U.S. dollar started its multi-year bear market rally right when Gold peaked in April of 2011.

James Park · Answer

Not sure how to upload a graphic in my post, but if you see my chart comparison. The stock market moves in 20 years cycles.

1940 - 1960 - stock market boom
	1960 - 1980 - stock market moved side ways 
	1980 - 2000 - stock market boom
	2000 - 2020 - i believe these 20 years will look a lot like 1960 - 1980.

Look at the lower lows of 1967, 1970, 1975. Looks like 2013 looks a lot like 1973.

My crystal ball tells me that the dollar will rally in 2014 and cash is king.

"be fearful when everyone is greedy, and be greedy when everyone is fearful."

I am a little fearful these days.

James Park · Answer

How does one add a graphic on a post?

John Rubino · Answer

Hey everybody....all this talk about crystal balls is getting me nervous.  I agree that things could shift a bit especially if rates jump.  People just need to realize that rates are at an all time low and the only place they can go is up.....I believe staying liquid is key.  Having too much on the street got a lot of people in trouble a few year's back.  Hopefully we all learned a big lesson from that.  I believe the rental market will continue to see a nice jump in growth.  Flips and rehabs are still out there as well just harder to find as more investors come into the market.  My goal is to continue to lend to businesses that have a great track record and sound business approach when going out to acquire, fix, and flip their projects.  The 6-9 month deals are still available...you just got to keep a better eye out for them.  Wish you all the best of luck and as long as BP is still around we'll all have a great place to share our stories.

Where is the opportunity to invest in 2014

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