California Rent Control Vote Looms as Rent Growth Cools

[Sanjeev Advani]

This November, California voters will decide on Proposition 33, which could repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, expanding rent control options across the state. It’s a familiar debate, as Californians have faced this choice twice since 2018.

Under the 2019 Tenant Protection Act, rent hikes have been capped at 10% per year or lower if inflation rates dictate. Current rent growth trends reveal variations across major cities:

• >San Francisco saw moderate growth at 4%, still below its pre-pandemic highs.
• >San Jose’s growth slowed to 2.7%, with a possible rise to 4.5% by 2025.
• >East Bay rents dipped slightly but are expected to rise 3%-4% as vacancy decreases.
• >Sacramento remains affordable at $1,850/month, with minimal growth.
• >Los Angeles faces near-zero growth amid economic strains and resident outmigration.
• >Orange County’s rates are steady, with limited increases expected until 2025.
• >Inland Empire and San Diego have minimal growth due to increased supply.

The upcoming vote could reshape the rental landscape significantly, influencing affordability and availability across California’s rental markets.