What the Last Six Recessions Say About Today’s Housing Market

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What will likely happen to real estate during the next recession? I cannot see the future, and I’m sure to be wrong. But I’ll look at what happened in the past to make an educated guess.

The Three Types of Recessions

At the cost of oversimplification, we can group recessions into three different categories:

1. Tightening monetary policy (1970s, 1980s, and possibly the near future).
2. A bubble that pops (the dot-com and housing bubbles in the 2000s).
3. A shock (such as a war or a pandemic).

Recession No. 1: Tightening monetary policy

When a recession is caused by tightening monetary policy, such as hiking interest rates to cool inflation (which slows the economy and can cause a recession), it seems homebuying demand cools or drops, which usually affects real estate first. 

And then once the Federal Reserve drops rates, homebuying demand usually increases, so real estate is usually the first to recover. In these recessions, real estate could be called a “first-in, first-out” asset. 

One could argue that the economic environment we are in today is constrained by tightened monetary policy (even though interest rates are at historical averages, not historical highs).

Recession No. 2: A bubble pop

If a recession occurs due to a speculation bubble popping, that industry and the stock market usually suffer first before real estate.

Examples:

• The railroad crash of 1873 involved a railroad stock bubble. 
• The dot-com bubble of 2000 involved a dot-com and tech stock bubble. 
• The Great Recession of 2008 primarily involved a single-family real estate bubble. Investors taking on leverage to speculate on these assets only made the problem worse.

If the next recession is due to another bubble of overinflated home prices, history tells us that home prices will sharply correct. It’s also worth noting that real estate saw a small dip in price in 2001 but bounced back quickly.

Recession No. 3: A shock

If a recession occurs due to a shock such as a war or a pandemic, travel and trade usually suffer first. Real estate can become a safe haven during these times. 

A Brief Note on Economic Deflation

History also tells us that home prices, along with other assets, can drop if we enter a deflationary period. 

This is where prices of assets drop, but their debt remains fixed, which can cause a deflation “downward spiral” as business revenues may decrease. This then may cause businesses to deflate wages, which means people are paid less over time, which means they have less to spend, and so on. 

The last time we saw major deflation in the U.S. was the Great Depression almost 100 years ago. I am not considering this in the realm of probable outcomes for the near future.

Now, let’s specifically look at the past six recessions to see how real estate fared.

The Previous Six Recessions

1. 1973 (Stagflation)

This era of stagflation was due to forces like an oil embargo, stock market losses, and inflation. Real estate was not the first asset class to suffer, but suffer it did. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 9.70% in the first half of 1974.

2. 1980 (Inflation, monetary tightening, “the “double-dip recession”)

Extreme rate hikes (mortgage rates hit above 17%) led to huge declines in home sales and a slight decline in prices (sound familiar?). Real estate was one of the first asset classes to get hit, but it was also not the first asset class to recover since the recession ended while interest rates were still high. And if we account for inflation-adjusted prices, the median home price didn’t recover until 1986. 

3. 1990 (Savings & loan crisis, Gulf War oil shock)

Savings and loan (S&L) companies were deregulated in the 1980s, which led to risky lending practices on commercial loans and ultimately to the failure of over 1,000 banks and a wave of foreclosures for commercial real estate properties. In 1992, the stock market recovered first before real estate did.

It’s also worth noting there was a decline in inflation-adjusted home prices, which didn’t recover until the year 2000.

4. 2001 (Dot-com bubble, 9/11 shock)

While the stock market experienced a decline, home prices didn’t. Investors shifted their cash to the safer asset of real estate. In addition, the Fed also slashed interest rates, which further fueled homebuying. This is when real estate entered its speculative bubble era.

5. 2008 (Housing bubble and financial crisis)

This recession was primarily caused by speculation in the housing market, along with the subprime mortgage crisis, leading to the largest collapse of home prices in modern history. However, it’s worth pointing out that home prices dropped even more during the Great Depression.

6. 2020 (COVID shock)

This was the shortest recession ever recorded (two months long). But its impact is still being felt today.

“Shock” recessions can result in increased demand for real estate, as it’s seen as a relatively safe asset. Residential home prices saw their fastest growth in modern history, while office properties saw a major correction. Following the intense inflation that occurred after COVID, in 2022, interest rates were hiked, which caused a “lock-in” effect for existing homeowners, not wanting to sell and buy a new property with higher rates. This has led to lower housing inventory for sale, keeping prices elevated.

Real Estate and the Next Recession

Monetary tightening, bubbles, or shocks appear to be the primary causes of recessions. So what about the next recession? 

The tightening monetary policy we saw from 2022-2024 has so far limited inflation and not caused a recession (by the formal definition); we’re in a successful “soft landing” as of the time of this writing. However, the Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.2 points from February to March and is the lowest it’s been since January 2021, when the country was still dealing with the pandemic. In addition, when Trump announced his “reciprocal tariffs” plan on April 2, the stock market plunged the most since 2020. 

I think what may happen to real estate during the next recession will depend on what kind of recession it happens to be. 

We’ve seen historically that if it’s a “shock recession,” then real estate may be seen as a safer asset, and prices may rise (unless the shock affects the land itself, such as governmental instability, war, or a natural disaster). We can already see investors fleeing to other safe financial instruments like the 10-year Treasury since the start of 2025.

If it’s a “bubble-popping recession,” then unless the bubble is directly related to housing, home prices may be unaffected relative to the broader market. I don’t think the housing market is in any kind of bubble. The majority of homeowners have low mortgage rates and high equity. Lending practices are also much stricter than they were pre-2008; to qualify for a home loan, you really do need to be able to afford a mortgage first. 

If there is such a bubble that currently exists, it might be the stock market, which currently has the third-highest cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio in the past 100 years.

This could suggest the stock market is overvalued and due for a correction. But again, this is data on the stock market, not the housing market. For what it’s worth, I think this is the most likely correction we’ll see in the near future.

Quick Update: This week, the S&P 500 dropped the most since 2020 after Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs.” Perhaps this is the beginning of the correction. Only time will tell.

If the recession is related to monetary policy, home price growth may stall or briefly decline before bouncing back after the recession ends. One could argue that we are currently seeing this or about to enter into this kind of period, akin to the 1970s and 1980s. 

Perhaps the next recession will be a combination of the overvalued stock market correcting (low growth) and tightened monetary policy (higher-than-2010s-interest rates) with higher inflation (new tariffs). We might even see stagflation for the first time since the 1970s.

Final Thoughts

We’ve seen the inflation-adjusted median home price drop by:

• 4% during the 1973 stagflation recession,
• 8% in the 1980 recession, and
• 6% in the 1990 recession.

Home prices didn’t decline after the 2001 recession but instead dropped massively in the 2008 recession. And I think stagflation (a combination of a stock market correction, elevated interest rates, and sticky inflation thanks to tariffs) is a highly likely scenario for the coming years as of this writing.

I think now is not the time to be highly leveraged, and I’d argue against using the 3.5% FHA loan—at least not unless the property is self-sustaining. But I just predicted the future in a blog post, which means I’ll likely be wrong. 

And for what it’s worth, all recessions end eventually, and the inflation-adjusted value of real estate continues to steadily climb. Just make sure you can ride out the next cycle.