But in this case I can pretty confidently predict that if you end up in front of a magistrate over this, you'll get murdered.

The second reason is that I would be able to qualify for a larger loan, since banks would allow a conservative prediction of cash flow from rents to be added to my income.  

Lock your rate now with whoever you are working with that did not take the time to offer you this prediction.

Long term deflation is NOT in the government's best interest so my crystal ball predicts renewed inflation at some future point.For the moment, however, I sure do like hiring carpenters and other tradespeople at half their usual rate.

If you have funds in an IRA the proper way to compare the options is to ask yourself a question:Should I leave those funds invested in a stock market with you and I can't control, can't predict and is risky and hope that it will work out okey at the end?

Just like you can't predict what car will win the race without taking into account the driver :-), vacation rentals can vary based on marketing and management approach. 

Well, that is your personal forecast and prediction. 

I predict that over the next 5 years, it will become part of 90% of conversations about real estate speculation in the SW. 

The bad news is that it is difficult to predict which will be 'successful' and which won't make it to their 2nd anniversary in the business.Here is the best advice that I can give you: get up, get dressed, go to work.In other words, treat it like a REAL JOB.  

So I guess, if I'm trying to decide about how much money to throw at the place (i.e. a 3 year breakeven or a 5 year breakeven)...I pretty much have to just do enough to get the job "done" (i.e. get the result that will get the rent and appreciation that I want...which is admittedly hard to exactly predict without a lot of experience)?