Denver STR: early signs of new supply
Member since 2026 · 8 posts · 3 votes
I'm noticing a pattern in Denver where new STR competition shows up in waves, and by the time it's obvious on Airbnb, the underwriting window is already gone. What's helped us is watching leading signals of new supply, not just Airbnb listing counts. Things like permits and registrations and other early indicators that show up weeks before the listings go live.
Curious how other operators are tracking saturation right now. If you’re buying or onboarding units this year, what are you using to spot new competition before it hits your comp set?
If anyone wants it, I can share the weekly Austin or Denver “new supply watch” email we’ve been using. No pitch, just happy to compare notes.
I just converted a Denver Unit from STR to MTR specifically because the supply issue you're describing was getting worse, plus the operational burden wasn't worth the incremental cash flow over mid-term. Watching permit data is smart but by the time permits are filed, you're already 3-6 months behind the actual decision cycle that matters.
The bigger leading indicator I wish I'd tracked earlier was how many corporate housing and travel nurse platforms were expanding into Denver. That demand shift toward 30-90 day stays told me the STR arbitrage was compressing before the supply flood even hit.
What metrics are you seeing in your supply watch that made you stay STR instead of pivoting to MTR? I'm curious if your data shows something I'm missing about sustained STR demand in Denver.
That makes total sense, and honestly Denver has been one of the clearest markets where the STR trade started to feel more like work than edge. Once supply shows up in waves, the pricing pressure hits fast and the incremental cash flow rarely justifies the extra turnovers, guest issues, and constant repricing. You're also spot on that permit data is late. By the time it's visible, the decision to add supply was made months earlier.
For me, the only reason to stay STR has been when the unit still shows a clear, repeatable premium over MTR on a net, headache-adjusted basis. The signals I watch are things like how many true compression nights I'm still getting each month, whether weekends consistently sell at a premium, and whether booking windows are holding without having to discount. Once lead times collapse and calendars fill late, that's usually the tell that supply has won. I also track comp availability closely. When nearby listings start showing more open nights 30 to 60 days out while rates slide, the arbitrage is basically gone.
The other big tell for me is the same one you mentioned but flipped. If corporate housing and travel nurse platforms are expanding fast and I'm seeing more 30 to 90 day inquiries at reasonable rates, I start thinking hybrid or full MTR instead of fighting the STR crowd. The only time I'd push back is in very specific pockets where events, hospitals, or hotels being consistently constrained still create real weekend and peak demand. Outside of that, I think you made a pretty rational move rather than a reactive one.