Seeking Market Outlooks

[Kevin Katai]

Hey everyone, 

I wanted to get a pulse on how others are feeling about the Toronto market in the upcoming Q1 and Q2, with respect to sale prices. I know the data posted by TRREB has sale volume and prices dropping from the hot market of Feb 2022, but in terms of YoY, prices haven't taken much of hit (<5%). I know most of the literature on the topic exaggerates the recession, which serves to get clicks on articles, but is there any data that points to a lingering cold market and drastic price drops ? My feelings are that a lot of would-be buyers of 2022 actually bought in 2021 thanks to the 0.25% rate, which is partially responsible for volume being down, but 2023 buyers should push up prices if the rate hike stabilizes (especially rental prices being so high). I also believe a part of this low demand  in Q3-Q4 that we're seeing is speculation by the would-be buyers (to see how low prices may go) as opposed to a lack of affordability (once prices bottom out, how fast can the market get hot in your opinion?). The data shows inflation decreasing from 8.1% in June to 7.6% in July to 7% in Aug. How many more rate increases do you guys anticipate ? Can price recovery be slow even with a half a million increase in population for both 2022 and 2023 ? What effects are the rental market really having on sale prices ? Any insights on wage growth and purchasing power ?

I understand no one has a crystal ball, I just wanted to initiate a conversation with like-minded people and be more informed. If you know any veteran market analysts, agents, investors, I'd love to connect with them. In return, I'd be happy to offer guidance on any residential construction inquiries: budgets, permits, timelines, etc. as that's our primary business. 

Cheers