12 US housing markets getting rocked by foreclosures

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12 US housing markets getting rocked by foreclosures

Chris ClothierBusiness Member
Rental Property Investor · memphis, TN · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes

I ran across this article this morning on Business Insider.  It is painted with broad strokes, but it still has some data that could be troubling or encouraging depending on which side of the fence you sit.  I just wanted to see what investors in these states are seeing and if the increase in foreclosures is leading to an increase in opportunity?

http://www.businessinsider.com/states-with-highest...

According to RealtyTrac, bank foreclosures are up 66% year over year and the foreclosure rate nationwide is 1 out of every 407 homes.  There are 12 states that are foreclosing at a faster rate than the national average.  If I'm not mistaken, this is the same trend that precluded the last housing crisis as foreclosures were clustered in a few areas around the country.

Here are the states seeing increased foreclosures:

Delaware
North Carolina
Indiana
Ohio
Georgia
New Mexico
South Carolina
Illinois
Maryland
Nevada
Florida
New Jersey

Anyone feeling a big increase in foreclosures?  And is that good or bad for what we do? 

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Brian BurkePro Member
Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
10y

I can't speak specifically to the markets on this list, @Chris Clothier, but I can say that here in California the vast majority of foreclosures are still in the 2004-2007 vintage loans.  This tells me that we are still sweeping up the mess from the crash that happened in 2007.  

I think this is happening for two reasons. 1. Relapse defaults after loan modifications that kicked the can down the road. We are now "down the road" and its judgment day for these folks.  2. Lenders that just ignored the problem waiting for higher home values so they could recapture as much as possible upon foreclosure.  Values are higher now...time to clean up the books.

By way of a first-hand example of reason #2:  I just bought a house on the courthouse steps that had a $600K loan from 2006. The unpaid balance was over $1 million...meaning that there were $400K in back payments and costs (never made a payment after origination??).  I paid around $350K on the courthouse steps. The house is worth around $525K. Had the lender foreclosed in 2009, the house probably would have sold at auction for around $200K.  Instead, the lender waited and got 175% of what they likely would have received back then.  I think we'll see more of this now that the upward trajectory of prices has slowed and there will be little benefit to lenders by waiting much longer.

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Doug N.  Rialto the hedge fund arm of Lennar got 5 billion in Tarp money and used that to buy bad banks and bad debt.. Many borrowers thought they were home free when they never heard from their lenders for years.. only to get a knock on the door from Rialto and on the commercial side these guys are going for judicial foreclosures and deficiency judgments thereby pushing many folks into a BK situation.

    its easy for these guys to play tough they bought the assets at a STEEP discount .. so they make money either way.. work out or foreclose and sell at discount its still profit for them since they did not originate and are in the deals as stated far less than the obligation of the borrower.

    borrower getting a loan mod to a CA foreclosure 4 days before the sale is the borrowers fault in CA I believe the law allows a lender to not accept a payoff or reinstatement either 3 or 5 days before the sale... If those folks wanted a mod they should have been on it far sooner.. it takes a year or more to get to the court house steps.. its the peoples fault not the big bad lender or subsequent owner of the debt.

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  • Doug N.
    Lynnwood, WA · Member since 2015 · 221 posts · 157 votes
    10y

    @Jay Hinrichs Thanks for filling that out a bit. Sometimes I don't look too deep esp at TARP histories and builder issues, though I should. I had no idea Lennar had a hedge fund... 

    Agreed that the homeowners are lagging far, far behind, and that the nytimes was playing it all into the arms of the big, bad (new) lenders... funny how MSM works at times, indignantly expecting PE firms to be less E and more... something else.  

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Doug N.  I only know the depth of Rialto because I was trying to broker a banks bad assets to them and I met with their team.. bunch of 30 something guys from New York and Miami Ivy league very smart with a huge check book  and Ego's to match  LOL

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