Multi-Family Deal (Cincinnati, OH)

Multi-Family Deal (Cincinnati, OH)

Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes

Hey Everyone,

Been analyzing a series of deals during the last 2 weeks and I keep coming back to this one. The current owner retired and has moved to a different state. He's tired of coming back to manage his properties, thus he's selling all of them.

All units are the same and there is a detached 3 car garage.

4 unit, 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom each. The current rents are $437.5 per unit which is below market rate of $500 - $650. All units are filled and they pay month-to-month. I plan to increase rents to $575 giving the tenants a 60 day notice.

And here is operating expenses and debt service. Assuming 5% Vacancy, 15% CapEx, 15% Repairs, and 11% property management (I plan the manage it)

Here are the details of the mortgage (currently pre-approved for an FHA loan, but I may likely will use a conventional loan with PMI instead, to avoid the lifetime mortgage insurance. I've calculated with 5% down it would take about 9 years to remove PMI, less time if I redirect cashflow to pay down the mortgage)

Here is the cash flow:

And return:

I'm concerned that I may have miscalculated something because the cash-on-cash return seems so large. Cash Spent is the sum of my down payment and closing costs. Cash on cash return was calculated as Yearly Cash Flow/Cash Spent. It doesn't meet the rule of thumb of $100 per unit, per door when I include PM fees.

The picture looks even better if I increase the rents to $600

I expect some CapEx spent in the next few years as the roof was replaced in 2004. The electric wiring and furnace were updated in 1994.

Crime rates in area are low, elementary school & middle school are average. The high school is below average. The current owner rents to older folks who don't have children. I'm still deciding if I'm comfortable with inheriting tenants. The owner and agent has communicated to them that there would likely be rent hikes under new management. They've all lived there 5-12 years. 

Thoughts on the deal? Am I missing some key factors?

Thanks,

Paul

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Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 105 posts · 58 votes
9y

Paul,

If for nothing else, I'd pursue it for educations sake. We could sit here all day and analyze the deal...jump in and start working it. If you do put the building under contract, you could then do some better analysis by requesting ACTUAL expense receipts and records. 

Let us know what you wind up doing and if you need help along the way.

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  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 105 posts · 58 votes
    9y

    Paul,

    A 30% rent increase seems very high...and a 5% vacancy seems very low. Could you shed some light on what part of Cincinnati this property is in? These figures/estimations could be very dependent on that.

    Your CoC calculations are correct. Little-to-no money down deals will yield a higher CoC, they'll just hurt your cashflow long-term if the rent growth does not keep up (speaking from experience in Cincinnati)

    -  Troy

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    This is located in Bond Hill. 

    With regard to long term rent growth, how do you approach the analysis? I simply looked at the range ($500 - $650) of the current rents in the area and set it somewhere in the middle ($575). So it's a very static view.

    I'll crunch the numbers at $500 per unit rent, which would still be a 14% rent increase.

    Do you recommend I do cash flow analysis over time (discounted cash flows)? I could estimate appreciation based on historic sale prices, I just wasn't banking on it. I've read that rents rise with appreciation.

    Thanks, 

    Paul

  • ., OH · Member since 2015 · 361 posts · 127 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud , I would have to second what @Account Closed said. Cincinnati can be very 'block by clock', so a fourplex, that "should"rent for 4x500 could be in a dumpy area..  hence the $425 current rent.

    ..that said, there are a ton of 4x425 in C/D neighborhoods..

    What area are you talking about..??

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 105 posts · 58 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud, are any of the current tenants Section 8?

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 105 posts · 58 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud I ran a quick cash flow analysis for you at the current rents, the expenses you detailed with a few alterations.

    Initial thoughts are that you'd do yourself well to self manage. Water & Sewer seems very low...is this the current amount being paid by the owners? Insurance also seems low. My father owns many properties in Cincinnati and insurance is usually 4% of SGI, which in this example would be closer to $800/year. Laundry also seemed high, so I lowered it to $3/tenant/week.

    Let me know if you have questions. If you could in fact raise rents to $500/mo, your Cap Rate jumps to 11%.

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y


    I've walked the surrounding blocks and spoke to neighbors. The area is relatively well kept.

    None of the tenants are section 8. There was another property two blocks over that is a 4 unit. It had government assisted housing tenants. The units were $550 - $600

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    @Account Closed: Thanks for running those numbers for me. I was attempting to be very conservative with my CapEx and Repairs at 15% each, I see you have it closer to 6.4%. In your experience was I overestimating?

    For an instance the roof was replaced in 2004. Assuming the useful life of a roof is 20 years, I have about 8 years before I need to drop $5K - $10K on a new one. I'd be covered at the 6.4% saving rate ($9,600), but if I were to also have to replace the furnace which was replaced in 1994 that's another $4K and I'd be under. Would an 8%-10% CapEx saving rate be more reasonable?

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 105 posts · 58 votes
    9y

    When dealing with these smaller buildings, that's more of what the Misc. & Reserves category is for. You figure some years you'll have those big CapEx projects, others you won't. I just threw a quick underwriting together at $300/unit. If you feel that $500/unit/year is more appropriate, then by all means factor that in...with the analysis I posted above, this would bring your cap rate to 7% roughly.

    I'm not surprised to hear that the Section 8 tenants are garnering those kinds of rents. You can cashflow very well with Section 8, but your repairs after the tenants vacate the property are usually much, much higher. Plus you have to deal with the inspections that can warrant necessary repairs and upgrades because, let's face it, Section 8 is a goat rodeo

  • Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud

    I agree to what has been said in regards to raising the rents so much.  You will be justified in bringing them up to the minimum $500.  However, going to $575 needs to be done over time.  And you would need good sound reasoning to get that, such as, renovations and upgrades.

    In the meantime you could look at sub metering or using a RUBS to improve your Cash Flow.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2014 · 150 posts · 59 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud Are you planning to owner occupy the building? Based on your financing terms, it seems like you are, but I didn't see you mention anything about that. I know a lot of lenders require 20-25% down for investment (non-owner occupied) properties, so I wanted to make sure your financing terms are correct for what you plan to do, because that could have a big impact on the amount of cash needed to purchase the property. Also, make sure you have sufficient cash reserves for initial turnovers and any maintenance you may need to get the units ready for a new tenant. New tenants may require a nicer unit than someone who has been living there for 5 years, especially with increasing rents.

  • Real Estate Agent · Circleville, OH · Member since 2008 · 633 posts · 488 votes
    9y

    Could always go with section 8 and try to manage the units well. As others have said, you're really gonna have to be careful on the neighborhoods, as it can vary so much.

    Is the seller locked into $90k for a purchase price? The current rents are quite low for a $90k purchase, is it possible to negotiate down even more, as in the long run that should help quite well? 

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    @Account Closed: I haven't made an offer yet. I might consider offering something lower ~$79K and see what they say (do sellers ever get offended because of lowballing?). The property has been on the market for 130 days+

    I'll read up on Section 8, but it may not be worth the headache.

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    Here is the updated analysis summary (I made a few corrections with my formulas). I think the ROI looks promising. Cash flows hit ~$396 per month if I manage myself during the first year I'm not owner occupied. (Cash flow is $42 during the year I'm owner occupant, but considering what I'll save on rent it will actually be closer to $500).

    I finally feel confident in the numbers. Do you guys think it's worth pursuing?

    Thanks,

    Paul

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 105 posts · 58 votes
    9y

    Paul,

    If for nothing else, I'd pursue it for educations sake. We could sit here all day and analyze the deal...jump in and start working it. If you do put the building under contract, you could then do some better analysis by requesting ACTUAL expense receipts and records. 

    Let us know what you wind up doing and if you need help along the way.

  • Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud

    Have you walked the property yet to see what kind of condition it is in?  Any immediate Rehab needed? Paint, flooring, cabinets, etc.  If so use it plus the below market rent rates to justify a low initial offer.  A 20% discount would not be out of line.  He is a rental property owner.  He should understand you need to be able to Cash Flow in order for you to purchase the property.  Does he own the property outright or is there still an outstanding mortgage?  If he has a lot of equity then he may be able to accommodate a more manageable purchase price.

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    @John Leavelle: He owns it straight out. I've seen the property, he showed it to last week. The property is in pretty good condition, I need to figure out my value add (it might just be getting it off his hands). I'm going to make an offer soon. 

    I'll let you know what happens.

  • Zach F.Business Member
    Property Manager · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 82 posts · 55 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud great work on running all of the numbers so thoroughly. Your cash on cash numbers are so high due to the 3.5% down payment. It doesn't seem right since the returns are so great, but that is one huge advantage of going FHA on a four family. It's going to get more difficult to find financing for that kind of cash on cash return down the road, but enjoy it while you've got the opportunity.

    Sounds like you have put in your due diligence and if you'd like to chat more feel free to reach out. I've been involved with a few owner occupied purchases in the area and most recently in pleasant ridge.

    Good luck!

    True Home Ohio Property Management 4.4407 Reviews
  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 3 votes
    9y

     @Paul Lachaud and @Account Closed, Those spread sheets you posted are a great tool. I'm new to this. Where did each of you get those from?

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    @John LaMedica

    Hey John,

    I actually built the sheet in excel myself. Just added a little bit of formatting to make it look nice so I can quickly copy and paste the tables into a document if I ever need to present a deal to a lender.

    I can send you a copy, but I recommend going through the exercise of putting one together yourself, just so all the assumptions make sense for your case.

    In addition there is always the BiggerPockets calculators you can use!

    Hope this helps.

  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 9 posts · 3 votes
    9y

    Thank you, @Paul Lachaud, very helpful!

  • Real Estate Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2008 · 23 posts · 17 votes
    9y

    dang, was hoping to scroll down and see that he got it

  • Professional · Loudonville, OH · Member since 2015 · 125 posts · 37 votes
    9y
    Paul Lachaud - that is one of the most well put together analyses of a first time buyer I have seen on here. 😊 Good luck on your deal - I purchased a 4-plex near Mansfield, Ohio with similar numbers but slightly lower rents a year ago for $90k. It's cash flowed nicely. Keep us updated!
  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    @James Taylor: Don't count me out yet! Putting an offer in.

    @Erin K. Thanks Erin. It definitely helps me stay organized, making sure I make a proper decision. Good to hear a property with similar numbers worked out for you.

  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2016 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    Put it under contract. Getting an inspection tomorrow.

    @Troy Beebe: I've requested the actual expense receipts and records. I hope that they fall in line with my estimates. Unsure what I'd do if expenses were significantly higher.

    Thanks for the help everyone.

  • Investor · La Vernia, TX · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 865 votes
    9y

    @Paul Lachaud

    If expenses are more than expected look into sub- metering utilities.  See if it's cost affective or prohibited.  Otherwise, consider using RUBS system to bill back utilities to tenants.  

    Good Luck with inspection.  :)

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