Buy and Hold deal

[Dan Miller]

I'm looking at an REO townhome that is currently priced at $100,000. Rents are about $1200 in the area and the homeowners fee is $50 per month with property taxes at $175 per month. Let's assume insurance will be about $50 per month. How do I capture potential maintenance, vacancies, or uncollected rent when I'm analyzing potential cashflow? The numbers can either look very good (i.e. $150-200 cashflow positive) or it could look bad if I assume some high monthly maintenance cost. Please advise.

Thanks,
Dan

[Jon Holdman]

Rent: $1200
Expenses: $600 (50% rule)
NOI: $600
Payment: $665 ($100K, 7%, 30 years)
Cash flow: -$65

Looks like a loser to me. Even with my more optimistic 40% assumption (self managed), cash flow is $54. I wouldn't use this more optimistic assumption for a property with an HOA where I don't have control over expenses.